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Correct Hand Analysis?
Here is a post I found on a yahoo newsgroup. I'd like to hear what others think of this analysis. Thanks!
JCT: I've been told I'm the best value bettor some people have ever seen and it all comes down to a simple twist in thinking. How could I be called "the Professor" at the Taj and also be called "The Maniac" by others in the same game? Here's a great example of the most important value betting technique in my arsenal. >From: "ronfal" <rfaltinsky@earthlink.net> >Date: Mon Aug 25, 2003 9:47 am >Subject: Turmel2Step in action JCT: Ron's found no new errors or typos in my Quiz Answers so we can be pretty sure they're right now. Maybe it's time to do a print publication now that someone's checked my numbers. And yet, there are some subtle tweaks that could still be included. RF: I recently won a pot in a very "tasty" 20/40 holdem game that I never would have won without using the Turmel2Step. I had raised in early position with AdJc and got 5 callers! The flop came Kc3h7c. I checked and there was a bet and 3 callers when it got around to me. At this point I ordinarily would have mucked the hand without giving it a second thought even though the pot was offering 16/1 odds. I would consider that I basically only had 2 aces as outs because the Ac would probably make a flush. I also never really included backdoor draws in my calculations until I studied the TajProfessor's brilliant Odds System! Using the Turmel2Step it was easy to determine that I had a very nice overlay to call the bet. Quickly adding up the combined probabilities of 3 aces, a backdoor straight, and flush pros and cons (I held the Jc), it was obvious that a call was in order since I was only about a 10/1 underdog. The turn was a 2c and everyone checked. The river was the Jd and we all checked again. Amazingly no one could beat my pair of jacks! JCT: It's not so amazing and here's where The Maniac would have bet out into four opponents. RF: (That was one out I never counted on!) JCT: It's true I don't compute the chances of hitting runner-runner two-pairs or threes because that probability is always there for everyone and many times, they get out- kicked. How much is it worth? Using our magic 2162 denominator, 6 cards hit our first pair and 5 cards make the second pair or trips which is 2162/30 or 71:1. 1.4%. You hit 1.4% of the time and lose many times. Call it a given. RF: I made a profit of $320 using a system that only costs $20! And that was only one pot...I expect to make many thousands more! Thank you TajProfessor! Ron JCT: The strategy that permitted me to make a profit of $360 or even $400 when my opponents had paired up on their Jacks or 7s or even 3s. When no one bet on the turn, you have to assume no one hit the flush yet, and probably that no one's protecting a King. When the Jack hits your hand to make you the next best pair with boss kicker, you know you're going to call any single bet. And your bet should be intimidating enough to turn everyone into callers unless you're really beaten. So you may as well bet in the hopes of catching the lesser hands if you're the winner. In this situation with a multi-way pot, you know there are a lot of small cards out there and the good chance your Jack is the boss pair. So when you know you're going to call and you know your bet is going to be scary enough to dissuade raising without real power, that's the perfect time to value bet. Every time there's a king out there, you'll lose another bet. So bet, and sure, when there's a King out there, you'll lost an extra bet. But when there isn't a King, now you'll gain an extra bet. So the very best kind of such value bets on spec are when: 1) you're going to call one more single bet anyway; 2) it takes real power to raise you and you'll be able to comfortably fold. A table protected by four other players should make a raise very unlikely. So, since it's going to cost you 1 more bet anyway, put it in first and then fold like you were bluffing if the table is raised. I'm sure I'll get some static on this but not betting on the end when you're going to call anyway is one of the biggest weaknesses in Holdem. I hope you keep your mind open to the proper conditions for this kind of value betting. I think it's where a decent bit of extra money is made. And, yes, Ron, it's true that catching overlays one would have passed up in earlier days is a rush, just wait until you ride the razor's edge with just exactly enough to chase once, twice, and check raise on the end with an unexpected zany draw. |
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Re: Correct Hand Analysis?
Sounds like a hustler talking to himself to promote some garbage.
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