mathematical expectation

[richestorags]

when you have to consider a number of factors, such as for example, the likely hood of an opponent betting, or calling your bet, or drawing, etc... and have to use your own judgement in these regards during every betting round and them compare some sort of odds to the pot odds you may or may not be getting to arrive at some sort of mathematical expectation, how is it exactly mathematical if you are using your own judgement.

if i think my opponent bluffs with a 30% frequency or that he will call my check-raise, or that someone will coldcall a 2-bet.

secondly, even if you do manage to accept your own judgement and make your decision based on the size of the pot, how would you be able to do all this analysis every betting round in a relatively short time-period, like couple of seconds. you obviously don't want to spend 30-60 seconds on these decisions. wouldn't all this thinking making you fatigued instead?

you would think there is a simpler way.

p.s. i have no idea what i'm talking about.

[BruceZ]

how is it exactly mathematical if you are using your own judgement.

Mathematics is only one part of poker. The other major parts are logic and psychology. Mathematics takes over only after you have made some judgement based on the other two. Mathematics doesn't tell you how to make a judgement, only how to make an optimal decision consistent with whatever judgement you have made. It also tells you how to factor in the uncertainty of your judgement, and the consequences of being wrong.

secondly, even if you do manage to accept your own judgement and make your decision based on the size of the pot, how would you be able to do all this analysis every betting round in a relatively short time-period, like couple of seconds. you obviously don't want to spend 30-60 seconds on these decisions. wouldn't all this thinking making you fatigued instead?

You do a great deal of thinking away from the table. There are general classes of situations which recur, and there are key variables for each situation. If you find yourself in situations that you cannot analyze in a few seconds, then you need to analyze those classes of situations until you understand them, and can quickly extract the relevant details.

[richestorags]