odds people - what are the chances of this happening?

beavens · #1 12-18-2005, 12:13 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($26.35)
Hero ($35.65)
BB ($24.75)
UTG ($36.16)
MP ($30.22)
CO ($21.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero bets $1, BB folds, UTG calls $1, MP folds, CO folds, Button calls $1.

Turn: ($4.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $3.5, UTG calls $3.50, Button calls $3.50.

River: ($15) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $15, UTG calls $15, Button calls $21.60 (All-In), Hero calls $6.60, UTG calls $6.60.

Final Pot: $79.80

Results in white below: 
Hero has 6s 3s (flush, ace high).
UTG has 9s Qs (flush, ace high).
Button has 4s Ks (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Button wins $79.80.

AaronBrown · #2 12-18-2005, 12:48 AM

I'm not sure what you mean by the odds. Hero's play is unusual, but it's hard to put a number on it. I would expect him to fold preflop, make a larger bet after the flop, and fold in the face of strength.

If you mean the odds that a flush will be beaten by two higher flushes, given the betting the odds are excellent. We can compute a number if you ignore the betting and just ask: given your hand and the board, what are the odds that two of the five other players each have two spades, including one higher than a six?

There are 45 unseen cards, which can generate 990 sets of pocket cards. 25 of those beat you, so there's 1 chance in 39.6 a specific other player beats you. Given that happens, there are 43 remaining cards which can be arranged 903 ways. There's 1 chance in 68.4 that a specific second player will beat you. There are 10 ways to select the two players that beat you, so overall there is about 1 chance in 217.

beavens · #3 12-18-2005, 12:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what you mean by the odds. Hero's play is unusual, but it's hard to put a number on it. I would expect him to fold preflop, make a larger bet after the flop, and fold in the face of strength.

If you mean the odds that a flush will be beaten by two higher flushes, given the betting the odds are excellent. We can compute a number if you ignore the betting and just ask: given your hand and the board, what are the odds that two of the five other players each have two spades, including one higher than a six?

There are 45 unseen cards, which can generate 990 sets of pocket cards. 25 of those beat you, so there's 1 chance in 39.6 a specific other player beats you. Given that happens, there are 43 remaining cards which can be arranged 903 ways. There's 1 chance in 68.4 that a specific second player will beat you. There are 10 ways to select the two players that beat you, so overall there is about 1 chance in 217.

[/ QUOTE ]

ty - Hero enjoys playing suited cards from the sb. quite possibly a leak.

thanks again for the numbers.

(overbetting the flop wouldnt be the best play i dont believe)

AaronBrown · #4 12-18-2005, 01:09 AM

Once you hit your flush on the flop, you have to worry about a fourth spade showing up on the board and causing you to lose to a hand with a higher spade. A large bet will look like a player with AJ or JJ or something, trying to discourage straight or flush drawers. It won't look like a flush, because most people who play suited cards preflop, play higher ones and would want everyone to stay in.

Therefore, your large bet is likely to be called by the hands you can beat, straights and high two-pairs or sets. If anyone raises you, she is highly likely to have a higher flush, so you can quit gracefully.

A low bet allows the hands that can outdraw you to stay in, without paying you much for the chance to beat you.

The trouble with playing small suited cards is exactly this, when you do hit, you can't make much money, and you lose too often.

Low connectors are different. The nice thing about them is when they hit, people don't expect them, and they aren't dominated by higher connectors. Like low suited cards, they also benefit from surprise when you get three of a kind or two pair.

Drontier · #5 12-18-2005, 01:10 AM

this is so bad. pot the flop, pot the turn. a spade is going to ruin your hand and noone at these stakes is folding an Ace ever.

beavens · #6 12-18-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Once you hit your flush on the flop, you have to worry about a fourth spade showing up on the board and causing you to lose to a hand with a higher spade. A large bet will look like a player with AJ or JJ or something, trying to discourage straight or flush drawers. It won't look like a flush, because most people who play suited cards preflop, play higher ones and would want everyone to stay in.

Therefore, your large bet is likely to be called by the hands you can beat, straights and high two-pairs or sets. If anyone raises you, she is highly likely to have a higher flush, so you can quit gracefully.

A low bet allows the hands that can outdraw you to stay in, without paying you much for the chance to beat you.

The trouble with playing small suited cards is exactly this, when you do hit, you can't make much money, and you lose too often.

Low connectors are different. The nice thing about them is when they hit, people don't expect them, and they aren't dominated by higher connectors. Like low suited cards, they also benefit from surprise when you get three of a kind or two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if they we're drawing with the 4flush i wasn't giving them proper odds to do so. if a 4th spade hit then i would toss the hand faster than all getout. just was surprised to see not one, but two overflushes.

i appreciate the time you've taken to reply to this thread.

your thoughts are very well communicated and have plenty of reason and logic behind them.

ohnonotthat · #7 12-18-2005, 01:59 AM

Reminds me of the time at the Trop when I was dealt 8-2/d in the BB - no raise, all but one limp. Nine to the flop (yeah, nine).

Two diamonds flop, bets and raises come from all over . . . this was years ago; I was brand new to the game, and folding a flush draw never entered my mind.

River = diamond and the betting is capped.

Last raisor says "flush", next to act says "how high" . . .

- and a little 8-2 shall lead them. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(5-4, 7-6, in that order)

*

Nice pot . . . poor play but a nice pot

AaronBrown · #8 12-18-2005, 11:34 AM

Thanks for the kind words.

I'm not saying you played the hand badly, I don't think you can analyze any poker hand without knowing the table and the session. Plus, the more reason there is not to do something, the more unexpected it is, which can sometimes be a good reason to do it.