Hypothetical Hand - Bubble Popper

[sofere]

$109 SNG, blinds 150/300 and are not going up again for a while.

Stacks before blinds
UTG (Hero) 1350
Btn 3200
SB 5050
BB 400

Big stack was pushing every hand, but folding every hand to the small stack.

Hero is dealt two cards. Hero limps. Thoughts?

[sofere]

Bump...anyone?

I guess I thought this was more interesting than it actually is.

[splashpot]

So you want the bigstack to push into you? Obviously this depends on your cards. If you have a monster, then this is clearly the right move. If you have a good hand but not a monster, then you should push, assuming they will still fold normal ranges.

I don't get why this is interesting. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
$109 SNG, blinds 150/300 and are not going up again for a while.

Stacks before blinds
UTG (Hero) 1350
Btn 3200
SB 5050
BB 400

Big stack was pushing every hand, but folding every hand to the small stack.

Hero is dealt two cards. Hero limps. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting spot.
I like your line on these two conditions. One, you have to be sure biggie is prolonging the bubble on purpose. Two, Hero needs some kinda hand, like top 60% maybe.

[splashpot]

Is the bigstack still folding to your pushes? If he is, you don't need to reply on the bigstack to steal shorties blind. He can't prolong the bubble if YOU steal the blind. If you had a hand like A9 or something, you'd be better off pushing.

[junkmail3]

I thought about this for a while, and I do think that it's very interesting.

What happens when the big stack pushes and the BB calls?

I assume you fold. Then what happens if the BB wins? You're at 1050 and the BB now has 1000 and you're posting the BB now - that's a little scary, espicially if the big stack will push with any two here.


I suppose what you want to happen is for the big stack to push and the BB to fold, at which point you would fold.


I think this play is interesting, but I don't know if everything will go as planned often enough for it to work for you.


After looking at different scenarios, there are actually several ways this could work for you.

It works if:
Big stack pushes, BB folds, you fold, BB is all in next hand, you have $200.

BS folds, BB pushes, you call and win.

BS pushes, BB calls, yolu fold and BB loses.


It fails if:
BS folds, BB pushes. You have to call, but I don't know if you're happy about your chances.

BS pushes, BB calls, you fold BB wins.


I guess you need to figure out the probability that each case would happen.

But I'm starting to like it more.

[sofere]

You're in the BB next hand, assuming he pushes and shorty folds, you have to fold and next time you get a chance to push you'll have absolutely 0 fold equity. So I think this is much less risky than waiting to push into BS.

My thought is...it basically guarantees that shorty will either (a) have to showdown this hand, or (b) will have 100 chips left and be all-in in the SB next hand.

4 things can happen:
(1)BS overpushes, BB calls, you fold
(2)BS folds, BB pushes his last 100, you call
(3)BS overpushes, BB folds, you fold

If he's all-in this hand vs either you're any 2 or BS's any 2, he's 50-50 to bust. Whether BS pushes, BB calls and you fold, or BS fold, BB calls, BB is ~50% to bust and if he wins is about even with you. Assuming you are then 50-50 to bust before him then there is a 75% chance you make the money. (1- (50% chance he wins * 50% chance u bust before him).

If BS overpushes and BB folds, you fold i think you're in a very good spot.

One last thing that can happen is BS calls, BB pushes his last 100, you both call. Most likely this is getting checked down and is an ideal situation. If BS pushes the flop just get out of the way.