Simple O8 question?

[rkiray]

Approximately how often does a low make it in O8? Although now that I think about it, maybe it's not so simple. Perhaps it depends on alot of things. But is there a rule of thumb? I'm asking because I sometimes have trouble knowing when to play four good high cards. Knowing the answer to this could impact that decision.

[Carl_William]

60 percent is a good estimate for there being sufficient board cards for one or more players to have a low. If you have four low cards in your hand the chance of a low goes down a little. Actual occurrences of low for one or more players in a nine handed game is probably in the range of 53% to 55% (just a swag). I have made numerous simulation runs with Wilson's Turbo OM8 program. If you really want to get into this -- then buy Turbo OM8 and make some simulations. Wilsom will sell you the program for $69.95 if you call him and ask for the discount....

Carl

[Buzz]

Rick - Probability of Low Before the Flop in Omaha-8 -

The probability of low before the flop is about 0.548 (54.8%) when you have four different low cards. (By low cards, I mean aces, deuces, treys, fours, fives, sixes, sevens, and eights).

The probability of low before the flop is about 0.583 (58.3%) when you have three different low cards.

The probability of low before the flop is about 0.649 (64.9%) when you have two different low cards.

The probability of low before the flop is about 0.656 (65.6%) when you have one different low card.

The probability of low before the flop is about 0.686 (68.6%) when you have no low cards.

If you're standing behind the rail and can't see any cards, then before the flop, the probability of low is about 1,561,728/2,598,960 = 0.6009 (60.09%).

These are calculated (not simulated) values, and I'm reasonably certain of them.

If Wilson's software had worked on my Power Macintosh G3, (but even with Virtual PC, I can't get it to work) I probably would never have bothered to learn how to make the probability calculations leading to the foregoing results.

The implication for playing hands such as KhQdJdTh or KhQhKdQd, is that the board will end up with a low almost 70% of the time when you have such (both playable from any position, IMHO) hands. However, usually you can get off the hand after the flop if you have missed, and in that event how often the pot is split probably has little significance to you. Perhaps of more significance to you would be the percentage of flops that have a fit with KhQdJdTh or KhQhKdQd, assuming a full, loose or semi-loose table. (It was to me). What do you think?

Buzz

[Aragorn]

>>The implication for playing hands such as KhQdJdTh or KhQhKdQd, is that the board will end up with a low almost 70% of the time when you have such (both playable from any position, IMHO) hands.

In two respects, KhQdJdTh is not as good as KhQhKdQd. With the first hand you are hoping for an ace and a picture or a ten. Almost 70% of the time the third card wlll give people a low draw. With an ace on the board, it is less likely anyone is in drawing to the nuts, so you might scoop. Also, there is a decent chance you will be worrying about flush draws and the board pairing. Both the low draws and flush draws will contribute when you scoop, but you are playing for the whole pot a bit less often and a straight, even the nut straight, isn't the strongest hand in Omaha.

With KKQQ double-suited, you are really hoping for a king or queen to flop and for the board to eventually pair. You will see a low less often when that happens.

[rkiray]

I think that is a very impressive post. I also think I would play all the hands you name in any position. I'm probably playing a little too loose though.

[Phat Mack]

Perhaps of more significance to you would be the percentage of flops that have a fit with KhQdJdTh or KhQhKdQd, assuming a full, loose or semi-loose table.

Buzz,

I'm interested in calculating this percentage in an attempt to assign a "cost" to playing KhQdJdTh or KhQhKdQd in limit O8. There would be flops that would make the nuts, and there would be flops that would enable draws to the nuts. But here would also be flops that provide draws to second nut hands. Which flops do you think would fit these hands? For example, when holding KhQdJdTh, a flop of JhTd9h would be nice, but a flop of three low cards -two of them hearts - might not be that great.

[Carl_William]

Pat:

Very good OM8 problem you posted -- I would also like to know a little more about that.... Remembering some of my most pleasant memories playing OM8 has been scooping big family pots with a pair of Kings or Queens while in excellent position. As you know: Sometimes this happens….

I have Wilson’s Turbo OM8 and will try to run on some simulations that give some idea about your problem statement. Perhaps if you have Turbo OM8 you could do this…. As soon as I find time I will attempt to get some info for this problem. Your underlying assumptions were:

“Perhaps of more significance to you would be the percentage of flops that have a fit with KhQdJdTh or KhQhKdQd, assuming a full, loose or semi-loose table”

I will try to run off a few simulations and post it. But: It may be a while because I’m leaving for Ohio for my 50th high school reunion. But I will do it if nobody beats me to this interesting problem – I promise. Also….

As you know: computer simulations are just a tool to give us some inkling on a relative basis of what to expect – they are not the real world.

Stay well,

Carl

[Carl_William]

Run six simulations on Wilson's Turbo OM8: 100,000 iterations or trials,
Results for player # 10 (deal spins around)

Player OM8
Simulation Player#10 Profile Hand
1 Mrs Marple Tight Kh Qd Jd Th
2 Dirty Harry Average Kh Qd Jd Th
3 Capt. Marvel Average Kh Qd Jd Th
4 Mrs Marple Tight Kh Qh Kd Qd
5 Mrs Marple Tight Kh Qh Kd Qd
6 Charlie Chan Tight Kh Qh Kd Qd

Hands won (seat #10) with out of 100,000 (busts won excluded)
Ran #
Simulation Pair 2 pair trips straight flush Full House Quads SF Seed
1 161 3346 1628 9988 5447 3895 193 228 12
2 34 2065 1211 9273 5104 3985 214 286 267
3 1015 5782 2391 10867 6112 3792 149 246 519
4 194 2453 8317 2618 6738 10209 1739 193 67
5 190 1850 7828 2482 6363 10031 1654 217 34
6 236 4332 10703 2785 7425 10649 1605 198 781

Hands lost with (seat #10) with out of 100,000 (busts won excluded)
Ran #
Simulation Pair 2 pair trips straight flush Full House Seed
1 1542 5171 1401 2800 2851 343 12
2 1059 5151 1574 3167 3039 389 267
3 2712 5675 1194 2327 2587 295 519
4 1461 6704 7414 851 3488 1807 67
5 1419 6353 7602 848 3464 1865 34
6 3031 7858 6106 693 3229 1568 781

[Carl_William]

Sorry -- doing this in a hurry using: Wilson's Turbo OM8; (2) Excel & Microsoft Word and copying to twoplustwo. Can't get columns to line up.

I will try to re-edit & send later

[Aragorn]

It would ne nice if you could explain what it all means, too. Since I don't know the program the output isn't very clear.