Variance When Playing Online Tournaments

[ML4L]

Hey all,

I'm a pretty good (but not great) NL ring-player, and I've begun playing the $10 tournaments on Paradise. I've played ten now and have not placed in any of them (I've gotten 4th FIVE TIMES and 5th twice). Do those of you who play tournaments regularly experience runs such as this? Although I haven't read any books on tournament play, I understand the basic differences between tournament and ring-game strategy (i.e. merely trying to stay alive won't let you finish in the money), and I feel as though I've made the necessary adjustments (with 4 or 5 people remaining, I've had the chip lead or been close in about half of those tournaments). Anyway, any responses about the chances of this just being a bad run (and/or any other advice that a tournament novice needs to know) are greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

ML4L

PS I have a friend who is just learning hold-em, but had gotten 1st in 5 of the 7 Paradise $10 tournaments that he's been in. Any comments regarding the likelihood of that?

[Copernicus]

Are these single table tournaments? Your friends success is phenomenally good and can't hold up unless Paradise tourney players are awful, even if they are only one table-ers. Even in one tables your lack of success may be an indication you should buy a good tournament book.

I'm a losing ring game player, but have around a 25% return on investment in $30 and $50 single table tourneys, in the money something like 60% of the time. As I recall my longest out of the money streak was 6 tourneys, and that included a couple of ridiculous suck-outs on all-ins that would have put me in solid chip position.

If you are an average player against average opponents, your mean is 30% in the money. Your mean for 10 tournaments is 7 times out of the money with a standard deviation of (10*.3*.7)^.5, or 1.5 tournaments. Thus a streak of 10 losses is only 2 standard deviations from the mean...not that unusual.

However, if you think you are above average (if we dont think we are, we are either compulsive or knowingly paying for the learning experience), and expect to be in the money 50% of the time, your standard deviation is now 1.6, and ten out of the money (from a mean of 5) is more than 3 standard deviations...something that should happen on the order of once every 10 times you play ten tournaments.

[fnurt]

I had great success at Paradise tournaments for several months but I remember it took quite a few tournaments before I started cashing regularly. I think it just takes time to adjust to the way people typically play in these tournaments, and of course, there's a lot of luck too.

[ML4L]

Hey all,

Thanks for the responses; they were very encouraging. I've played seven tournaments since my post and finished in the money in six of them. What a great introduction to the variance that I can expect if I continue to play in online tournaments...

ML4L

[microlimitaddict]

very similar to some of my numbers except in reverse order.

had a streak where i placed in 7 of 8 (including 2 1st's and 3 2nd's) and also 13 of 18.
then went 0 for 13.
crazy.

i play on stars on both their 1 and 2-table sit-and-goes (about half and half). 3 of 9 get $$ on the 1-tables and 4-of-18 take cash on the two tables so that will effect the calculations for how far off i might have been from the SD.

took some really lousy suck-outs today but finished the evening with a 1st place on a 1-table $10 tourney while also winning a $10 head-to-head match so i was even money-wise for the eve. it's a yo-yo ride sometimes.

if my flopped trip K's hadn't lost to AAA on the river i would have been in the black....blah blah blah, whine whine whine.