Marginal situation?

[Magician]

$20 NLHE on Pokerstars, very similar but different situation to a hand a few weeks ago:

I have 1,475 chips. Blinds are 50/100.

I'm dealt pocket TT in UTG + 2. Folded to me. I raise to 4 BB (leaving me with 1,075 chips). Folded to cutoff (with 1150 chips) who calls (leaving him with 750 chips). Button, SB and BB fold.

Flop is A 4 3 (all of the same suit). One of the tens in my hand matches the suit on the board.

I curse being first to act and wonder what to do. I'd never seen him before but in my brief experience of sitting at the same table he had been aggressive on a couple of flops. If I just check, I think he is likely to bet. If I bet small, I think he is likely to raise. I can't bet 60-80% of the pot because it's too big a fraction of my stack - if my intention is to bet sizeably I have to move in.

I figure if he had AA, KK, QQ or even JJ he is likely to have re-raised. I figure if he has a smaller pair that my move in could make him release his hand or call (both are fine by me), if he has an Ace + a weak kicker he could release his hand, and if he has AK or AQ there is just a 1 in 4 chance that the K or Q he has matches the board and he has me drawing dead on the flush draw. I figure a bad case is he calls with an ace and I still have 10 outs twice (worst case of course is he calls with an ace and I am drawing dead on the flush giving me only 2 outs twice).

I move in, he calls and flips over A6o (the 6 not matching the suit on the board), no help arrives, and I am crippled (down to 300 chips as I had him covered).

I confirm later that I indeed had a 42% chance (the 10 outs twice) on that hand after moving in (twodimes.net).

a) Was it the right move?
b) If I knew his hand (i.e. knew for a fact he had A6o not matching the board's suit), would it still have been the right move?

[Copernicus]

There is probably no way to play it with a better result. I agree, if you are in you have to be the bettor because you may drive out a soft ace. Unless you are on the bubble you would certainly call an all-in knowing his hand, since you would be getting pot odds of 1650/750. If you knew his hand in advance would you be the one to go all-in? Its hard to make a bet with the worst of it, even if the pot odds are good, if losing is going to put you out of the tourney, but in this case, even knowing hes going to call, I think its the right play.

[cferejohn]

I think you played it fine. I think he played it terribly. Make a note that he is prone to call a pre-flop raise with any Ace. That's a huge mistake in NL at a full table, especially when the raise comes from EP.

[DaNoob]

I agree with Chris... take notes on that guy. I knocked someone out of a NL tourney last night with AK vs. A7 or A8. I went all-in when the ace flopped and he called without hesitation.

The one thing I've learned to do lately, however, is to question whether or not the hand in front of me is the one I want to risk my getting knocked out of the tourney on. Too many times of late I've gone all-in with the worst of it, or only as a slight favorite, and been knocked out. Now, before I push, I stop and think a good long while about whether or not I'm ready to sit out and steam if I lose. Then, without fail, I end up pushing in anyway.

It's hard to teach this old dog not to be stoopid.

[Guy McSucker]

I just wanted to add that you're not going to push anyone off a weak ace, if they have one.

Anyone who calls your preflop raise with a weak ace will certainly call when an ace flops.

Not that this helps me decide what to do of course...

Guy.

[Rickfish]

You analysed this quite thoroughly and I wondered how long it took you at the table. If it took you a few seconds then he could have picked this up and decided you didn't have an Ace. Ideally you would already know what you were going to do on any particular flop.

BTW, twodimes.net makes it 43%, well 42.83% to be more exact.