NLHE (after the flop only) flop decision

[Squirrel]

$100 buy in, $25 rebuys

Rebuys were for the first 2 rounds only, which were played as limit.

It is now the 4th round, with 200-400 blinds. Limit BEFORE the flop, no limit AFTER the flop.

50 players entered, about 27 remain, top 5 get paid.

Due to small starting stacks, and blinds that double every 15 minutes, this casino's tournies are higher luck and higher variance. You are going to need to get some cards, and usually you are going to have to gamble where you might otherwise not.

9 handed 200-400 blinds, I'm in the SB with 2100 after posting. (Believe it or not, this is actually above average on my table, and only slightly below tourney average).

EP limps in. Unknown player but seems reasonable.

Folded to me, I call for 200 more with Jh 9h. The BB is a known player and here's what I know. He won't raise out of his BB without AA or KK in this situation. He will call with many more hands than he will bet with (on all streets) and he NEVER checkraises. This is great information to know, but oh how I wish I was to his left!

BB checks as expected, 1200 pot, 3 players

Flop: Kh Ts 6h

I have 1900, and both players have about the same (+/- 100)

I was watching the players, not the flop. When the flop hit the board, the EP immediately looked at his chips.

What's your play?

[Squirrel]

The round had just started.
There was about 12 minutes left.

I am in the top 10 skillwise of the remaining players, although certainly not top 3.

[sam h]

I'm putting my chips in on this flop, its just a question of when. Given the small stacks, I would just push all-in immediately. Unless the limper bets really small, you probably don't have enough chips to move him off a hand by checkraising. Why not give him a chance to fold a weak king?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If the range of hands you put him on is AK, KQ, KJ, KT, you're slightly less than a 7-5 dog if he calls. This is +EV even if he calls 100% of the time. He won't. Go ahead and put him all-in.

[Copernicus]

above average skill, slightly below average stack, probably behind if you believe the tell, a rock behind you, 12 outs...thats an all in to you? Please come and play in my tourneys.

Check and see what BB does. The limper is betting for sure. If youve got the odds for a draw and arent scared by the BB, raise just enough to keep implied odds on your side (which may be $0), or fold. I think your on the wrong side of a coin flip here (55/45 against if you believe the tell is Ks, and assuming the rock folds) and even with a slight edge, this isnt the time to blow it all.

[Squirrel]

After reading a couple posts, I hope I didn't give the wrong impression of the BB. He's not a ROCK, just very passive. You know the type, likes to call, but when he bets- look out!

Anyway here's what I was thinking:

1) EP has a hand. I put him on a King, and not a weak King either. He was a reasonable player and he was in early postion. AK or KQ most likely, KJ or KT would be a small stretch, especially unsuited. He could also have a huge hand like TT or 66. It is limit before the flop, which greatly reduces the amount of raising out of position (pertaining to this game, although I'm guessing that this is the correct strategic adjustment for the structure). To a lesser extent, he could have a heart draw also (AhTh or AhQh would be bad).
There are some others as well, but I put him on a good King.

2) If I choose to play, it is going to be for all my chips. There is no way with a min. 400 flop bet I am putting chips in and getting away from my hand.

3) I am ALMOST CERTAIN that I am going to have to show down the best hand to win. I can't imagine the EP folding any of the hands I put him on. Nor do I think he should.

4) The BB won't bet a Ten or a draw, but he may very well call with it. He would probably bet a decent King and would absolutely call with any King. Other than this speculation, I have no read on BB's hand.

I felt I had a good grasp of the situation, but I wasn't sure how to attack it.


I don't like shoving all-in. I'm trailing the EP anyway, why risk losing the BB with an all in bet just to get heads up with a player who a J or 9 won't be good against anyway. I'm going to have to hit a draw, so getting it headsup probably doesn't "buy me outs".

If I choose to get all the money in on the flop, why not bet 400 (or slightly more), entice the BB to call, let EP raise and trap BB between a better hand and a better draw. I know that in tournaments survival is often put ahead of +EV and headsup is my BEST CHANCE for survival. However it is hard for me to imagine a situation where BB would call a hand for 400, that he wouldn't have called for 1900, and then proceed to outdraw me after I outdrew EP. If BB folds for the 400, he would have folded for more so to me the play is better that going all-in.

I dindn't like checkraising all-in for the above reason. First, EP is not laying his hand down IMO, and why eliminate the BB. I am not going to get the BB to lay a hand down that I WANT him to lay down. If EP has me beat, which I'm sure he does, I only want the BB to lay down a draw that is better than mine, which he won't, so why not let him play?

Check call? I didn't want EP shoving all in, and then my all-in call scaring the BB. If EP bet less than all in, I could smooth call, and then bet the turn all-in. By the way, if the stacks were deeper, this probably would have been my first choice. This way I could still get away from bad turn cards, while maximizing my implied odds.

If I check and the BB bets, well... I don't know. I would probably call only if the EP also called/raised. That sounds weird, but I think it may make my overcall +EV, where a headsup call of the BB may not be (2 pair or set). I don't think EP would fold, but he MIGHT to an all-in BB bet, because of BB's passive play. I almost discount this possibility though, I have no reason to think BB is going to bet.

Check and Fold. Wait for a better situation. I don't have the best hand yet, and I'm going to have to make the best hand by the river. Do I want to go busted on a missed draw when I know I am going to get called?



I chose...............................check and fold.


I know not very exciting, but despite the short rounds and low chips I thought a better situation would arise. It never did, and I blinded myself down to 1.5 BB before making an unsuccessful stand. Oh well.

I think this is my biggest tournament weakness, the "Phil Hellmuth Syndrome". Overestimating your chances of getting the money in with much the best of it later, and thus failing to gamble correctly when the situation presents itself.

If I could do it all over, I am almost positive leading between 400 and 600 on the flop is the best play. I'm going all-in, the EP is going all-in, let's try inducing the BB to do the same.

Thanks for your responses.

"I'm always looking for the nuts" - Squirrel

[Squirrel]

I checked and folded to an 800 bet by EP.

[MrGo]

Where in Wisconsin are you?

[Squirrel]

Sheboygan. aka Poker Hell

Know of any home games within 2 hours?