How many outs...

krishanleong · #1 12-04-2005, 06:19 PM

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

How many outs do I have here? Please list the breakdown so we can argue in detail. How many pair outs, straight outs, hidden outs.

Villian is 46/22/1.5/52 over 60.

Krishan

Surfbullet · #2 12-04-2005, 06:23 PM

Pair outs: 6
Straight outs: 4
Chop outs: 4

Our Qs are no good if he's got a J. Our pairs are no good if he's got a 7, 2pair, or a set, or has us reverse dominated. Hearts or diamonds could either be no good, but not as likely b/c it's heads-up. our chop outs are no good if he holds a J.

soooo discounting

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

krishanleong · #3 12-04-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

2.5 + 3.5 + 1 = 6? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Krishan

Spicymoose · #4 12-04-2005, 06:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pair outs: 6
Straight outs: 4
Chop outs: 4

Our Qs are no good if he's got a J. Our pairs are no good if he's got a 7, 2pair, or a set, or has us reverse dominated. Hearts or diamonds could either be no good, but not as likely b/c it's heads-up. our chop outs are no good if he holds a J.

soooo discounting

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

TStoneMBD · #5 12-04-2005, 06:36 PM

i dont know how many outs but i dont think enough to call the turn.

krishanleong · #6 12-04-2005, 06:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i dont know how many outs but i dont think enough to call the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think actually coming up with the number away from the table is a valuable exercise. It can help you decide what outs you need in the future. Plus in this particular hand the hidden split outs provide enough value in my opinion to make this a profitable call. I know I call looser than most with overcard draws but I think this one is okay. I'm open to being told I'm wrong especially with analysis.

Krishan

Surfbullet · #7 12-04-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

2.5 + 3.5 + 1 = 6? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

So it looks like I can do a complicated case-by-case analysis of poker situations with many variables, but can't do simple arithmetic.

Go me!

~7 outs. Right. I couldn't even claim it as a typo b/c i've got one of those ergonomic keyboards so the numbers on the left hand only go up to 6 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Surf

Surfbullet · #8 12-04-2005, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've all but given up on counting on these as "outs" in any meaningful way because it happens so infrquently, unless he's a TAG.

Surf

Spicymoose · #9 12-04-2005, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've all but given up on counting on these as "outs" in any meaningful way because it happens so infrquently, unless he's a TAG.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he could have a flush draw or some other random LAGGY bluff hand that he might give up on the river sometimes?

krishanleong · #10 12-04-2005, 06:48 PM

Surf, I'm going to pick apart your out assignments. I think most people will agree with your discounting. I don't, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but we are all here to learn right?

[ QUOTE ]

Our Qs are no good if he's got a J. Our pairs are no good if he's got a 7, 2pair, or a set, or has us reverse dominated. Hearts or diamonds could either be no good, but not as likely b/c it's heads-up. our chop outs are no good if he holds a J.

soooo discounting

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

The standard discount overcard outs by 50% was I think main mainstream by Ed Miller. If he meant for you to discount 50% in multiway pots where there was action, I think there has to exist a scenerio where as a default we assign more than .5 for each overcard out. In this hand I have two things going for me that make reverse domination a little less of an issue. I don't have an ace in my hand. It's a blind steal and he's calling with a very wide range. I think it's fair to give more than .5 per overcard in a scenerio with really wide hand ranges. I usually give myself 4 outs minimum here. Take out 1/8th outs for flushes and I get 3.5 outs.

[ QUOTE ]

Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and losing to flush)

[/ QUOTE ]

So 1/8th of the time he has a flush draw. I can live with that.

[ QUOTE ]

Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

[/ QUOTE ]

The discount to 2 is unarguable. But the discount to 1 assumes he has a J half the time? You can toss in a little bit a flush discount (1/8th again?) but I doubt he has a J even 10% of the time. Assuming 1/8th of the time a flush and 1/10th of the time a J I still should get at least 1.5 outs for the split.

Everyone, please argue with me. With my calcs I come up with 3.5 + 3.5 + 1.5 = 8.5 outs. Thanks,

Krishan