Did I do the right thing?

[Magician]

$36 + $3 Pokerstars Satellite for $200 tournament on Sunday.

I'm dealt JJ in EP with the blinds at $10/$20

I raise to 200, hoping for a loose call and an early score.

Folded to BB, who calls.

My notes on this guy show he once called a blind steal attempt I made on him with just 6 9 suited and that he is a bit of a loose cannon.

Flop is Q x x rainbow (can't remember but the other two cards were small and I don't remember any straight possibility, or open-ended straight possibility).

First to act, he bets about 90% of the pot.

I ponder whether he might have flopped trips, and decide it's possible, but unlikely.

I honestly think he's trying to buy the pot but I'd rather call and hope to reach a showdown then move on him.

I decide to call and see what he does on the turn.

Turn card is another small card (still unpaired board, but I think two of a suit now).

BB bets again.

I think the turn could not have helped either of us and his bet which is about pot size means I have to either fold or move in on him (can't call at this point as I'd be too pot-committed to fold anyway if I called).

I decide I have the best hand and move in.

BB calls and flips over AQo (ouch!).

I think the mistake here was (subconsciously) assuming that people are using the same starting hand standards as me. I would never call from the BB for 200 from an EP raiser when the blinds are $10/$20 with just AQo.

I really thought he had some kind of pocket pair or at least AK (again, making his betting on the flop and turn look to me like he was buying the pot).

I think betting 200 with Jacks that early could be called questionable but then again when you get a caller, and no overcard falls, you are in great shape, and even if an overcard falls, you still have some chance of winning the pot (you can bet enough on the flop to find out if your Jacks are good).

[cferejohn]

If I felt like I could make a raise on the flop that would not put me all-in, I would do it there to see how he responds. Otherwise, I probably make my all-in or fold decision on the flop. From the sound of it, this player *could* have been making a move, and online you don't really have much to go on other than previous play. With just one overcard, I think its really a toss up and unfortunately you guessed wrong.

If you want to avoid situations like this in the future, just tell yourself that you are not going to put all your chips in in the first couple levels unless you are nearly sure you have the best hand. You might lay down some winners, but hopefully other players are paying attention and tight play here earns your raises some respect in the more expensive rounds.

Also, this is why I wouldn't make such a big pre-flop raise. If you had made a 3-4x raise, you could have had more room to re-raise without jepordizing all your chips pre-flop.

[Justaloser]

Lets see...
You bet, he calls. Flop comes with an overcard, he bets, you call?

If you put him on a steal, then you should have popped him back right then. By playing passive, he has a pretty good idea that his top pair and top kicker are good.

Very few people will bluff the flop and river, especially out of position.

Also, with the blinds at that level, there are people that will gamble and then there's the poor players. A large bet like that now is more likely to get callers than later on in the tourney.

[Magician]

I really thought that after I called that he would check on the turn.

I think that moving in on him on the flop might have been correct against most players but I think this guy would have called anyway and it would have made no difference.

The problem with playing loose cannons is that sometimes they do have a hand.

[Justaloser]

>>The problem with playing loose cannons is that sometimes they do have a hand. <<

Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]


It's a tough hand. If you call, he's got every reason to bet. If you raise, he's still got the better hand, and from what you said, he'd still end up winning. Just add it to your notes and hope next time he has a hand, you've got 72os.

[Bat Cape]

I don't see much point in raising so much with JJ, especially from an early position. As Sklansky wrote in his tournament book, you're likely to only be called by big hands, such as AA,KK,QQ, AKs, and maybe even AQ. So, when called, you're not necessarily in very good shape, especially when an overcard hits the board. Early in the tournament,I prefer a limping and then punishing the morons on the flop if the conditions are favorable.

[cferejohn]

On that theme, someone in CardPlayer, I think it was Dan Negraneu (sic), said it helped him to start thinking of JJ as 88, and playing it a lot more like that than like QQ. If you think of it that way, a call and hope to flop no overcards or (dare I hope) trips makes more sense.

That said, I just had the almost exact same thing happen to me, except the guy called a big preflop raise with QJo then called my all-in on the queen high flop.

[Ignatius]

> I raise to 200, hoping for a loose call and an early score.
.
Yeah right! Raising T200 to win T30. There's about a 10% chance to run into AA-QQ, in which case you're toast, and your absurd overbet assures that you will only get called when you are either on a coinflip or a 4:1 dog. Sure, their are maniacs who will move in on you with TT or lesser hands, but do you really want to risk your whole stack with your only hope being that your opponent is a moron? In that case, you have a much better chance to be right if you raise someone who opens for 10 times the BB than doing it yourself.

[Rickfish]

I would not raise to 200. Sometimes I would limp other times I would raise 3x BB. I like to mix it up a bit.

Just because he called a steal attempt some time before doesn't mean he doesn't recognise a genuine raise from UTG. So you should still give him some credit for a decent hand, e.g. AK, AQ or a pair. If he is a loose cannon it makes calling more difficult as he could also have KQ, QJ, QT.

It is true that his flop bet could be a semi-bluff with an under-pair but I don't think you can afford to find out. His flop bet must have been in the region of 400 which leaves you little room to manoeuvre. You can't afford to throw another 400 chips away and a raise might as well be all-in which seems too risky. Getting this wrong means busting out and I think better opportunities will arise.

I don't think you had enough experience with this player to know whether his flop bet was likely to be a bluff or not. Some players in his position would check-raise with AQ. Does that mean he was worried about you having AA or KK and he was willing to lay it down? In that case if you raise it has to be on the flop when he might fold. Once you flat call he will be fairly confident he is winning.

My ideal result on the hand would be to lose T20 by limping and folding on the flop.

[Magician]

Funny, some people would say limping is worse than folding because on the flop you will have no idea what anybody has and could end up losing it all if you flop an overpair and somebody has a better hand (i.e. you trapped yourself).

Some people say betting 80 is a mistake because it doesn't narrow the range of hands you face enough. Yet when you bet 200 and do that it becomes too risky because you are now too pot committed.