Stuck in a tough spot with KJs 4 handed ($1/$2)

[Sykes]

Notes on villians.

SB is 26/14/2.2 over 70 hands and not afraid to 3 bet with weakish holding if Button is loose with the raises (previous hands played with sb shows this, had open-raised on button with T9s and got 3 bet with A7o).

BB is 35/17/1.5 (will make moves with draws though), usually folds when sb 3 bets against button raises, but will cc 3 bets with 55+, JTs+ and it's caps range is 99+, KQs+.

On to the hand.

1 fold, Hero open-raises on button with K J, SB 3 bets, BB caps, Hero calls, Sb calls.

Flop is

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Sb checks, BB bets, Hero raises, Sb folds, BB calls

Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero thinks and calls.

River 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets, Hero calls.

Thoughts?

Fold pre-flop? Fold turn? Fold river?

[milesdyson]

fold preflop to BB's cap. you're dominated vs. almost every one of his overcard hands, and you still have SB to deal with.

on the river, you're never good even if he pulled a sweet turn four flush c/r (which btw is only possible with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] given the range you gave him - meaning you should fold the turn).

[waffle]

i'd fold pf.

i'm not sure about the best flop play, i can't decide between all three.

but if you raise the flop and he just calls you have to check behind on the turn. you'll induce a river bluff from a hand like 99 that might have folded to a turn bet, you'll avoid the inevitable turn c/r from the hands that have you crushed, and you'll be able to see another card for free (not really an issue now that an A fell, but it could be nice on some other boards).

since you bet the turn, you have to fold to the c/r. you are boned.

[Sykes]

What if he donk-bets the turn with 99+ but not with an ace?

Go into call down mode?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
What if he donk-bets the turn with 99+ but not with an ace?

Go into call down mode?

[/ QUOTE ]
99 (6)
TT (6)
JJ (1)
QQ (6)
KK (3)
you're ahead of 12, behind 10. if he would donk the turn and you knew his range so perfectly that you knew he would not bet an ace here, you would call the turn because he would most likely fold TT/99 to a raise here. this all changes if you think he could fold QQ/KK to a raise, and whether or not he is going to lead his entire range on the river, as well.

but really, there would never be a time when you had such a great read or that a player actually always checked an ace and always donked 99+ on the turn.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if he donk-bets the turn with 99+ but not with an ace?

Go into call down mode?

[/ QUOTE ]
99 (6)
TT (6)
JJ (1)
QQ (6)
KK (3)
you're ahead of 12, behind 10. if he would donk the turn and you knew his range so perfectly that you knew he would not bet an ace here, you would call the turn because he would most likely fold TT/99 to a raise here. this all changes if you think he could fold QQ/KK to a raise, and whether or not he is going to lead his entire range on the river, as well.

but really, there would never be a time when you had such a great read or that a player actually always checked an ace and always donked 99+ on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

True enough, maybe not always but let's say that 80% of the time he donks, he does not have an ace. Which would make sense since because at $1/$2 people that lead the flop also lead the turn which makes it quite profitable for Ax to c/r here since button could be betting on the turn with a wide range of hands (KJo-T9).

So, do you call down knowing that he'll never fold KK/QQ? What if he folds KK/QQ 10% of the time? 20%? When do you raise to bluff him off KK/QQ, turn or river?

[I am fish]

Folding preflop is plain wrong. You are getting 5 to 1 on your call. You have more equity than that. In pokerstove I did a quick analysis. Gave the BB a hand range of AA,KK,QQ,AKs,AKo and gave SB a range of AA-99, AKs-A9s,KQs-KTs,AKo-A9o,KJo-KTo... I think that is pretty conservative.. and you still had 20% equity. Call preflop and see the flop.