Heard a Rumor about NFI

adios · #1 07-02-2003, 03:03 PM

I know AceHigh is/was long NFI and for any others that have a position, a reliable source passed along a rumor yesterday about NFI. He said that he's heard that NFI is going to re-securiterize some of their residual Interest Only bonds from previous securitizations and that it would lead to a big spike in the divvy which has already spiked a lot. Just thought I'd pass it along FWIW.

AceHigh · #2 07-02-2003, 08:03 PM

Thanks for the tip. I saw it climbing today. Wondered what that was about.

Guess I might have to buy some more.

AceHigh · #3 07-22-2003, 05:31 PM

Tom,

I know you had some money in IMH, have you heard anything about it lately? Looks like the shorts are going after it.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030721/marke...s_short_1.html

The yield is around 13%, the stock should be very attractive at the current price if it's dividend rate doesn't drop.

I think IMH announces it's dividend in late September, so people looking to buy might want to watch the price. If the dividend announcement is solid, it should climb back up.

adios · #4 07-22-2003, 05:55 PM

Well IMH should have an earnings release the beginning of August. You can never be sure about the sell off. I'm guessing that the back up in the bond market is hurting the stock because there is a perception that IMH's origination business and warehousing business will be negatively impacted which I suppose is true to a certain extent. My information is that there portfolio of mortgage securities will do quite well irregardless.

It makes me wonder about NFI. Divi announcement this week but NFI has a loan origination business as well so I'm wondering when the divi and earnings news is out if we'll see a retracement in share price. Again my information is that NFI's portfolio should do well given a backup in rates.

AceHigh · #5 07-22-2003, 07:44 PM

"Well IMH should have an earnings release the beginning of August."

OK,last dividend date was July, so I thought announcement would be in September. I've heard a lot of good things about them, so they may be a good investment oppurtunity in a month or less. Right after NFI dividend time, I hope.

"It makes me wonder about NFI. "

Don't say that. I got some more shares at 63 on your tip. And thanks for the tip. So far, I've only heard good things about NFI. I heard dividend announcement was the 28th, did it get moved up again?

adios · #6 07-23-2003, 08:40 AM

FWIW I'd wait for volume to decline from it's current levels before jumping in but I think IMH is a buy at current prices. I think IMH's last earnings release was on 5/03/03 so I just went 3 months out as they announce their divi before earnings. Earnings announcement on July 30. FWIW for the past 2 or 3 quarters selling the day before X and picking it up after the price shakeout would have improved results quite a bit. Depends on tax status etc. though. I've read several what I consider knowledgable traders of these securities predict a nice rise in earnings in each quarter for the rest of the year. For that matter I think IMH will continue to post good earnings numbers as well.

AceHigh · #7 07-31-2003, 06:12 PM

Looks like NFI's spike dividend will occur in quarter 4. Estimates are in the $4.50 - 5.00 dividend range. The good new is it shows managements is conservative and emphasizing growth over immediate increase in stock price.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bb...amp;mid=101800

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bb...amp;mid=101681

adios · #8 08-01-2003, 09:34 AM

hhill has an extensive background on Wall Street and was involved at one time with securitizations of asset back securities. He's stated that he's about "all in" on NFI with an S&P put options as a hedge. He posts quite a few trades but his best info is regarding stocks like NFI IMO. NFI should do well in a strengthening economy mode.