Fold or call with JJ?

[DonHansen]

Stars $20+2 MTT, $1000 for 1st place. 30 players left out of 180. Your cards have been stone cold and you've seen no more than 11 flops all night, but been lucky and doubled with AA and tripled with 999 so you're 7th out of the remaining 30 players. Average stack is about 7K, you have 12K. With FT in the horizon the 9-handed table is very tight. Blinds 150/300, ante 50. UTG you pick up

J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Because of your rock-tight image you elect to raise just 2xBB to 600 hoping for a single caller. The whole table folds except one MP who flat calls. Pot is 2100, two players see the flop:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You lead out with a 800-bet, and the MP goes all-in with his last 5000 chips. You have no read on him except he lost a big pot some hands ago when he was outplayed. So it's costing you 4200 to see the 7900 pot, almost 1.9 odds.

For me this was a thinker, and I went in the tank for my entire time-bank. I really would appreciate som input on how more experienced players than me handles a situation like this.


D.

You don't want action with JJ. As soon as the flop comes with any over cards you are left in this horrible situation. Raise at least x3, otherwise you are giving the odds the blinds need to call with just one overcard.
To me their over raise looks like a bluff with the flush draw so it's a very close decision. There is the possibility that they have trip 7's and figure you for AQ, KK, AA. I don't like calling here because if I am dominated I don't have much of a chance of catching up. If you think he may be tilting s then call and expect to see the flush draw or a middle pair.

Raise more pre flop as you don't want action with JJ. You are giving the blinds great odds to call with one overcard.
Post flop they are probably bluffing with the spade draw, but it's hard to tell. Fold, unless you think they may be tilting.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Because of your rock-tight image you elect to raise just 2xBB to 600 hoping for a single caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just raise your normal raise, I'm really suprised the BB didn't complete as he was closing the action and getting 5-1.

If you call and lose, you will still have ~6K, which is 20BB's and a workable stack.

You are a slight dog to a hand like AK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or A7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], big dog to any Q, KK, and AA, but well ahead of all other flush draws that have only 1 overcard and no pair.

Mix up all those hands and you are *probably* a slight dog to the range, but getting 2:1 and not going broke if you lose make this a call for me.


Regards,
Woodguy

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
Because of your rock-tight image you elect to raise just 2xBB to 600 hoping for a single caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

People say this a lot, but in a $20 tournament you don't have an image, simply because your opponents are brain dead/multi-tabling/not looking at anything other than the two cards in front of them.

In any case...it's close, but I'm an optimist, so I put him on a flush draw and call. (When in doubt, put the villain on a hand you can beat.)