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#1
11-11-2005, 05:09 PM
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Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 6 handed)
saw flop/fold preflop Hero ($95) Button ($200) SB ($100) BB ($175) UTG ($380) MP ($115) Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG and MP call. Hero call. <font color="#666666"> Button folds</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $4</font> BB, UTG, MP and Hero call $3. Flop: ($20) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $5</font> <font color="#666666"> BB folds</font> UTG calls $5. <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $15</font> Hero calls 15. SB calls 10. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $100</font> <font color="#666666"> MP folds</font> Hero? SB still to play after me. 
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#3
11-11-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?
ALLLLLL-INNNN
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#5
11-11-2005, 05:43 PM
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Re: Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?
Fold. UTG's drawing to a bigger flush Ad8d and you are crushed.
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#6
11-11-2005, 05:44 PM
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Re: Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?
I agree, odds are hard to calculate under pressure sometimes. 13 outs with two cards to come....about 50% to make your straight or flush. Seems like the right call as long as your straight or flush is higher than his, you are just jack high. Is this a bluff? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#7
11-11-2005, 05:52 PM
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Re: Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?
Fold. Keep in mind you'd be CALLING a push, not betting one. You'd only have a cinch hand if you completed your straight, which isn't even a real OESD, you either need an 8, or runner-runner. Also, your flush would be J high, with AKQ of diamonds still live.
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#8
11-11-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?
villain's hand is a set or two pair > 95% of the time. your typical opponents do not call a bet then put in a 3rd raise after a player on their left has raised the original bettor with a flush draw. while it may happen, i have not seen it. given an average pot equity of 35% it is slightly +ev.
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#10
11-11-2005, 06:52 PM
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Re: Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Fold. UTG's drawing to a bigger flush Ad8d and you are crushed. [/ QUOTE ] are you jopkin? [/ QUOTE ] Nope. [ QUOTE ] villain's hand is a set or two pair > 95% of the time. your typical opponents do not call a bet then put in a 3rd raise after a player on their left has raised the original bettor with a flush draw. while it may happen, i have not seen it. given an average pot equity of 35% it is slightly +ev. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree with this. A set or two pair is raising the first time the action is to him 95% of the time, especially with the weak SB bet. Unless he has a special read that MP or Hero will be raising for sure. It seems unlikely that they would be raising behind him as SB was the PFR. I think it came back around to him and he says 'Heck, I got a great draw, let's push it.' Ad8d or KdQd. I could be wrong because I suck at poker but that's my feel for the situation. It's also entirely possible that the pusher has a set. But, it's also within the realm of possibility (likely to me) that he or one of the other villians is drawing to a flush. If that's the case, we have at least two less outs, and if we hit our flush we probably are second best. I think it's a fold. (And I'm wondering if Hero shouldn't have pushed the first time the action comes to him?!? That would have been interesting)
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