Bad all in vs Maniac? Or was this play +EV?

Toddy · #1 11-09-2005, 09:50 AM

180 person tourney. Villain made a 3x BB raise every single time he was first to act. Once I came over the top and he folded.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t9901)
UTG+1 (t8978)
MP1 (t6905)
MP2 (t15040)
CO (t8740)
Button (t12886)
SB (t2908)
Hero (t5855)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, Button raises to t2400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t5805, Button calls t3405.

Flop: (t11910) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t11910) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t11910) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t11910

Toddy · #2 11-09-2005, 09:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
180 person tourney. Villain made a 3x BB raise every single time he was first to act. Once I came over the top and he folded.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t9901)
UTG+1 (t8978)
MP1 (t6905)
MP2 (t15040)
CO (t8740)
Button (t12886)
SB (t2908)
Hero (t5855)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, Button raises to t2400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t5805, Button calls t3405.

Flop: (t11910) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t11910) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t11910) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t11910

[/ QUOTE ]

Also my thinking on this was there was a 50% chance villain would fold, and there was a 50% that I would win the hand if he called..

ansky451 · #3 11-09-2005, 09:55 AM

He folds here pf 0% of the time. He is getting almost 3-1.

Sam T. · #4 11-09-2005, 10:31 AM

I've made this mistake before. You have to make sure that you have FE before you try this. As Ansky points out if the villain has even a basic understanding of pot odds, you're getting called.

If you feel compelled to make a move, a SnG would be better, but I'd rather fold this, and push by SB and button with any old trash.

PunterSThompson · #5 11-09-2005, 10:32 AM

The problem with this if it's a steal is that it's almost always +EV for him to call (he only needs to be about 29% or better). You'd only figure him to fold 50% if you knew he was horrible.

That said, your stack is 5850 with 1300 a round cost (it looks like 50 a person antes?), so you're going to need to make a move real soon. If you think he might raise with many hands as you suggest, this isnt an awful time to push it in and hope. Without doing all the math my gut tells me its a somewhat close decision either way.

Harrington 2 has a similar example where you have A2o in the bb vs a button steal raiser. He calls it a narrow fold, but KTs is a far better hand, and your opponent is a maniac.

Regardless, you're going to have to start slamming it in soon anyway.

Punter

#6 11-09-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Also my thinking on this was there was a 50% chance villain would fold, and there was a 50% that I would win the hand if he called..

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can think for a second that villain will really call that infrequently it may be +EV. The problem here is villain has odds to call with almost any holding, therefore your fold equity just isn't there and this play is now marginal if not -EV. You're anywhere from a slight favorite to a 30:70 dog here. I think you can pick a better spot since you're not quite in panic mode.

#7 11-09-2005, 11:10 AM

Why are you pushing against the big stack when he already has 2400 in the pot? His pot odds dictate a call. And, why are you pushing with that hand? You are a dog to most hand ranges.

Don't do this again.

schwza · #8 11-09-2005, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain made a 3x BB raise every single time he was first to act

[/ QUOTE ]

i can't believe how negative people are on OP's play given this. i agree that against the vast majority of players this is a turbo fold. but if this guy is opening any 2 (and if he has opened every pot, i don't see why he'd stop when it's folded to him on the button), then hero should push (a stop n go might be better, but pushing is definitely better than folding).

if hero pushes and villain calls with any 2, hero has a 62% chance to win. that's huge, especially with a little dead money in the pot. if villain folds his junk and calls his good hands, that's even better for us, because he has plenty of odds to call with anything but Kx and Tx (and hero only loses out a tiny bit if villain folds those). since folding would be a bad mistake for villain, it's great for us.

if you for some reason believe that villain will be raise "only" the top 75% of his hands - and i think that's very conservative - i'm pretty sure that hero's push is well +EV.

finally, why is everyone assuming that a guy who opens every pot knows anything about pot odds? i think there's less than a 50% chance that villain folds, but it's way higher than 0.

edited for clarity.

#9 11-09-2005, 12:11 PM

bad allin IMO. Harrington even suggests playing tighter against a looser table or player and playing looser against a tigher table or player. wait for a hand then slam him.

schwza · #10 11-09-2005, 12:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bad allin IMO. Harrington even suggests playing tighter against a looser table or player and playing looser against a tigher table or player. wait for a hand then slam him.

[/ QUOTE ]

against an any-2 raise, this is a hand.