OT Help me with my downswing

[golfcchs]

Well I have been playing poker online for about 4 months now with some pretty good success, which is 100% due to this forum. But have recently hit some rocky times. About 2 months ago I started playing Party Poker and began keeping stats with poker tracker for the first time. My first 345 22’s I ran very, but have hit some rocky times since then.

My, all be it short, carreer at the 22's:

345 sng's 36.68% ROI ITM 38.16% 18.26% 1st, 13.62% 2nd, 9.28% 3rd.

281 sng's -1.65 ROI, ITM 33.81% 9.96% 1st, 10.68% 2nd, 13.17 3rd.

I realize that my first 345 I was probably running hot and was experiencing an unsustainable RIO. I also realize I am now experiencing some bad variance. But I have to wonder if I could have developed some leaks in my game that I did not have earlier. For instance I have tightened up more in the first 3 levels. In my first 345 I had a pre flop raise of 4.7% level 1, 6.8% level 2, and 11.4 % level 3, Compared to my last 281 with 3.4% level 1, 4.4% level 2, and 8.9% level 3. Over all I have gone from an average pre flop raise of 16.1% to 12.8%.

I don’t know if anyone can help me interpret these changes, or I just have to chalk it up to variance. But I feel like I have to do something to try to improve besides blaming bad luck.

Thanks in advance for the help.

[jedinite]

what are your total stats?

From here, looks like regression to the mean. Like you said, you were running hot before and this is a correction. Need to see your total stats to have a slightly clearer picture, but from 50k' that's my guess. I.e. your stats are now headed towards a more sustainable ROI.

Of course regardless blah blah small sample size blah blah just variance blah blah.

[golfcchs]

Thanks for the reply. I have 626 22's at 19.45% ROI.

What I am really wondering is if you think tightening up could be a leak, and how could I go about finding leaks (I know I have them, but my pushes under 10 bb seem fine by Sng power tools).

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 626 22's at 19.45% ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]
THIS is the number to keep an eye on. Looking at a small sample of "x last SNGs" isn't meaningful for tracking your overall results, especially if its shaking your confidence. Look at it the other way: you're a 19.45% ROI player at the 22s across 626 SNGs and that's a very solid result.

[ QUOTE ]
What I am really wondering is if you think tightening up could be a leak

[/ QUOTE ]

Could be. But most likely not, if anything tightening up early is a good thing. Post specific hands for analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
how could I go about finding leaks (I know I have them, but my pushes under 10 bb seem fine by Sng power tools).

[/ QUOTE ]

We all do. If you're using SNGPT then you're already moving in the right direction. Set aside time to review your hand historys from start to finish after your play sessions. Post questionable hands for group review.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the reply. I have 626 22's at 19.45% ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then you're not running bad. You're doing pretty fing great, in fact. Don't trip, keep ya head up

[Mr_J]

"looks like regression to the mean"

This doesn't happen.

"and this is a correction"

These don't exist either.

It's no different than flipping a coin. Previous results themselves don't influence future results in any way.

[golfcchs]

Do you think this is just variance then, or could their be something differnent about my play?

I went through something very similar this month. Last month, I was, it seems, running pretty hot and I got it in my head that I could sustain that ROI or that it was my normal ROI. Unfortunately, I was swinging down for the past two weeks but seem to be back up now.

Variance will happen and it's really tough to see the bigger picture when you're sliding on the downswing. I can totally relate and I think if you just keep playing what appears to be very solid poker, you'll work through it. On the other side, you'll just forget that it happened.

Stay positive.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I have been playing poker online for about 4 months now...

But I have to wonder if I could have developed some leaks in my game that I did not have earlier.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a common thought-leak that I see all of the time.

What is more likely?

A. You started out a naturally great poker player and have developed leaks, or

B. You may not yet be a great poker player and poor results may be related to the fact that you have not been doing this for very long.

It's OK not to be born a SNG master. It takes a while to become a skilled poker player.

My advice is to ignore your early success... it can only corrupt your game. Examine your decisions closely, you are almost certainly making frequent errors. The members of this forum can help you with that.

Irieguy

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think this is just variance then, or could their be something differnent about my play?

[/ QUOTE ]
I had a bad downswing a little while back and while I felt that I was playing solid poker, after reviewing some tournaments I realized I was in fact playing weaker. I didn't bet as strongly when I made a hand, or wouldn't pursue good drawing hands even though I had good pot odds because I "knew" I wouldn't draw my cards. Might want to check for that... barring that or some other big leak, yeah, your cards are just running cold at the moment and you need to just plow through it.