Question to EASTBAY & SNG Ptools experts

Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: doobs ( $4040 )
Seat 5: Slainte2000 ( $2430 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $550 )
Seat 8: GERMINDOL ( $980 )
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO: Qs 8s
Hero is all-In [550]

I thought it is a standard push, but when i ran this situation in SNGPT I was confused.

When i set up calling ranges like:
BB 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J6+,T7+,76s+
SB 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs
BTN 66+ ATs+ AJ+
The push has positive EV.

But if i make BB calling range 100% (it is actually +EV for BB to call ATC) my push becomes -0,9 %.

So adding to the BB 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J6+,T7+,76s+ hands like 23o against which I am a favorite makes it -EV ???

I understand that 100% call range makes 0% probability to take blinds without a fight, but I think that even going in to a coinflip with my stack is'nt that bad ???


What I am missing? And wuold you really fold that hand ???

[swiftrhett]

ICM is not taking into account that you are BB next hand.

[gildwulf]

This is a good push. Don't worry.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM is not taking into account that you are BB next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if you told it not to.

eastbay

[eastbay]

One effect of bubble play is that it can be bad for you to be called by a hand over which you are a favorite.

How can that be? Because the chips you stand to lose hurt you far worse than the chips you stand to gain help you.

When a player makes a bad call on the bubble, often it hurts both him AND you. It helps the other players not involved in the hand, who stand a good chance to get an equity boost from the crippling or bust out of you or the caller.

This is one of the more frustrating aspects of SnG play.

eastbay

[tigerite]

That blinds equity is a bit bugged though anyway. I don't know if you ever saw it but there was a post a while back, whereby with the equity modelling on, AA was a fold and not a push even face up. It doesn't take into account the modelling on the EV Fold for the push - which is wrong.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
That blinds equity is a bit bugged though anyway. I don't know if you ever saw it but there was a post a while back, whereby with the equity modelling on, AA was a fold and not a push even face up.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I remember correctly, that was a garbage in, garbage out situation. I can only put so many training wheels on the program. The more flexibility I give people to tweak things, the more ways people are going to find to do analyses that don't make any sense.

[ QUOTE ]

It doesn't take into account the modelling on the EV Fold for the push - which is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not correct.

eastbay

[tigerite]

There was definitely a bug with it. Wish I could remember the old thread now.

It was when you were on holiday - what date would that be? September ish?

[tigerite]

Found it.

As it turns out I meant "EV No Call" was not being changed to reflect equity modelling.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Found it.

As it turns out I meant "EV No Call" was not being changed to reflect equity modelling.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's possible. I'll take a look at that.

eastbay