$22s: Am I overestimating my folding equity at this level?

[Taraz]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO (t600)
Hero (t765)
SB (t1170)
BB (t2005)
UTG (t1285)
MP (t2175)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to t100, 3 folds, Hero raises all-in to t765, MP calls t665.

I just recently moved back down to the 22s to four table and I'm getting reamed. I'm thinking that a problem might be that people are taking coin flips and the wrong end of 60-40s when I'm offering it to them in the early going. Are plays like this bad in the 22s in level 3?

[pineapple888]

I don't see how this hand has anything to do with the 22s. You're a shorty who re-raised a much bigger stack. Don't you think he's calling?

But, in general, you should almost always have a good hand to raise at the 22s, even on the bubble. The players call far too often.

[Taraz]

I dunno, from my experience at the 55s the minraiser will fold this far more often than he calls. You can ignore this specific hand if you want, but should I not be pushing when I think I'm 60-40 to win preflop or on the flop if it's still early? If they call two of those a tourney and have me covered my itm is already down below 37% (which coincidentally is exactly where my itm is this month).

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, from my experience at the 55s the minraiser will fold this far more often than he calls. You can ignore this specific hand if you want, but should I not be pushing when I think I'm 60-40 to win preflop or on the flop if it's still early? If they call two of those a tourney and have me covered my itm is already down below 37% (which coincidentally is exactly where my itm is this month).

[/ QUOTE ]

All I can say is that you seem to be overestimating your folding equity at this level [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I try to avoid 60-40s early at *any* buy-in for a nothing pot. If there's significant money in the middle, it's a different story, like in the other hand you just posted.

[jedinite]

If you are expecting that villian is going to make any two overs fold here, yes, you're overestimating your FE. You might get QJ, KJ, possibly KQ to fold but you're probably not getting AJ and almost certainly not AQ or AK to fold.

So he's got AJ or AQ and you've got a medium PP.

He's 43% to your 57% and he's getting 1.26-1 to call. Most $22 opponents are going to take the wrong side of that coinflip with overcards and those pot odds, even if you were somehow able to expose your hand preflop.

With your stack size and the blinds where they're at (and especially if they're one or two hands from going up) I'm not disappointed if he calls me with two overs in this situation. The FE you've got plus the advantage preflop makes this play the proper one, in my opinion.

This push would be a no-brainer with jacks in my opinion, tens are right on the bubble but I'd push this 90% of the time baring a read.

[jeffraider]

Why are you so concerned with him calling in this spot? I push here thinking I've got the best hand most of the time and he folds the odd time, that's enough to make it profitable.

[Taraz]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you so concerned with him calling in this spot? I push here thinking I've got the best hand most of the time and he folds the odd time, that's enough to make it profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not so much this hand that is the question. I chose poorly, but this was the hand that got me thinking. I'm pretty sure pushing is the right play in this spot.

But I'm basically asking how loose I should I expect players to be at the 22s on significant reraises.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
But I'm basically asking how loose I should I expect players to be at the 22s on significant reraises.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given that he's calling off less than 1/3 his stack here to a shortstack who's seen as being desparate, I really don't think most typical $22'ers see this as a "significant" re-raise, and I think if you expect a lot of FE out of your opponents in similar spots at $22 you're going to be disappointed.

Your average (non-2p2'er) $22 player loses a lot of their $EV by making marginal to very bad calls in these types of situations. Long term, its what we (as superior pushbots) take advantage of... short term, it means taking some coinflips that you might rather avoid because opponents will call with marginal hands.

@ the 22's I wouldn't be shocked to see the caller turn over Axs or even Kxs occasionally. I've seen much, much worse....