($22) QJ flop top pair, no PFR

#1 11-07-2005, 07:57 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (t1040)
Button (t425)
Hero (t740)
BB (t755)
UTG (t470)
UTG+1 (t960)
UTG+2 (t1870)
MP1 (t670)
MP2 (t595)
MP3 (t475)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, 5 folds, Button calls t30, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t120) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets t85, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Button raises to t170, Hero calls t85.

Turn: (t460) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button raises all-in (t225), Hero calls t225.

River: (t685) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t685

Button has limped in about half of the 18 or so hands so far. UTG+1 appears to be a solid player. After they both limp in, I complete with QJ.

I make a 3/4 pot sized bet and everybody folds to button who min-raises. I have him on a J with a weaker kicker or a T, and call.

Turn brings a King, I check to him and he goes all-in. I notice I have an open straight draw and decide to call.

Am I reaching too far here?

#2 11-07-2005, 08:36 PM

I don't see how you can narrow his range to a worse jack/ten. And I don't see how we can make a real estimate without knowing more about him (like how he lost his chips before this). Seems to me you'll see AJ/KJ/QJ/JT (or bottom set) here a lot more often than you'll see weaker Js or tens, based on what we have to go on so far, though.

#3 11-07-2005, 08:39 PM

And if that's really your read, I think you need to go ahead and put him in on the flop. He's already committed to this hand, may as well make him pay to draw if that's what he's doing (vs potentially having to make a tough decision later).

pergesu · #4 11-07-2005, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (t1040)
Button (t425)
Hero (t740)
BB (t755)
UTG (t470)
UTG+1 (t960)
UTG+2 (t1870)
MP1 (t670)
MP2 (t595)
MP3 (t475)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, 5 folds, Button calls t30, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t120) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets t85, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Button raises to t170, Hero calls t85.

Turn: (t460) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button raises all-in (t225), Hero calls t225.

River: (t685) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t685

Button has limped in about half of the 18 or so hands so far. UTG+1 appears to be a solid player. After they both limp in, I complete with QJ.

I make a 3/4 pot sized bet and everybody folds to button who min-raises. I have him on a J with a weaker kicker or a T, and call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hrm...why? You think he makes that raise with J9?

[ QUOTE ]
Turn brings a King, I check to him and he goes all-in. I notice I have an open straight draw and decide to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay so let's assume you're right...the K is a bad card for you because it further narrows the hands you beat. On the flop it was J9/J8 (neither of which I think raise there, btw), AT/KT. Now it's just J9/J8 and AT.

Even if he's raising you on the flop with a draw (KQ/Q9/AQ)...guess what, he hit. You've got no indication that you're good, so I don't understand why you would think you are.

[ QUOTE ]
Am I reaching too far here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think so.

#5 11-07-2005, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems to me you'll see AJ/KJ/QJ/JT (or bottom set) here a lot more often than you'll see weaker Js or tens, based on what we have to go on so far, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for taking the time to reply, ciaran. This is exactly the kind of information I was looking for -- something to sanity check my assumptions against. I figured if he had AJ, he would have raised. That leaves KJ as the only other threatening hand and folding in fear of KJ to me feels like folding KK to a reraiser fearing he might have AA. Is this a bad analogy?

Should I have assumed he had two-pair or a set when he raised my bet?

#6 11-07-2005, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And if that's really your read, I think you need to go ahead and put him in on the flop. He's already committed to this hand, may as well make him pay to draw if that's what he's doing (vs potentially having to make a tough decision later).

[/ QUOTE ]

So after the flop, I should have re-raised all-in or folded. I agree with you, that makes more sense. Thanks for the insight.

#7 11-07-2005, 09:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Even if he's raising you on the flop with a draw (KQ/Q9/AQ)...guess what, he hit. You've got no indication that you're good, so I don't understand why you would think you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks pergesu. I think the first thought that popped in my head was that he was semi-bluffing with a marginal hand that I had beat, and I quit thinking after that.

He showed down TT and took the pot with his set.

You've convinced me that I probably should've folded to his raise at the flop and definitely folded to his bet on the turn.