AK turn play when you've missed the flop

[radio_on]

I am consistently mis-playing the following scenario. I'm making up the details, but the pattern recurs often enough.

Round 3 of a SNG, 7 players remain, no monster stacks. Blinds are 50/100. My stack is slightly above average at 1800. I'm dealt AcKh in middle position. It's folded to me and I bet 300. The button calls, everyone else folds. His stack is 2100 and I have observed him to be a solid quiet player who recently showed a couple of good hands. Pot is 600. The flop is 4s8d9h. No help for me, but nothing scary. I fire off a standard continuation bet of 400, hoping to end it there. The button calls. The pot is now 1400 -- not too shabby. The turn is 3c. What do I do now? Harrington appears to suggest that another continuation bet here might be right, but I'm not so sure. A meaningful continuation bet would cripple my stack. I've got two good overcards, but that's only 6 outs, and it's not an unreasonable assumption that the button has at least paired by now. But if I check, I'm begging him to steal the pot. Several times recently, I have fired off a half-pot-sized bet and gotten hosed.

[SonnyJay]

I know it's kind of a copout to say, especially if you're playing more than 4 tables, but the correct play is opponent dependent. I don't feel a blanket statement could cover this situation appropriately, but I'll give it a shot.

This flop likely didn't hit him, so you have to figure him on overcards or a pair. If this person is tight, as you described, the flop call would tend towards the latter, but it's still not reliable.

I feel that this example goes beyond "am I ahead?" to "should I continue with this hand due to tournament poker situations?" I haven't read HOH I or II for a while, but I feel his second continuation bet suggestion is meant for situations with deeper stacks than this. You're likely ahead here, but it's hard to determine and being wrong will cost you your remaining stack. With t1100 behind and a t1400 pot you'll be committed with any additional continuation bet.

I lean towards checking and hoping he's willing to check down with AQ. Note that any bet of his would commit a lot of his remaining stack, so he's not in the greatest situation to bluff either.

A perfect example of why it's nice to have position.

-SonnyJay

[AA suited]

where does harrington say fire off 2nd barrel?

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
where does harrington say fire off 2nd barrel?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i think harrington would advocate letting the hand go. you've done all you can to win the pot to this point. you check, and if he bets, he's telling you that he has a better hand. believe him.

[gildwulf]

It's highly read dependent but as a default play check/fold is OK. If he checks behind I'd probably throw out a small bet as a block/value bet, say like 300, on a non-scary river.

[Nick M]

does harrington say anything about hand history converters, paragraph formation, and/or blindly incoherent sentence structure?

make it simple, you'll get more feedback...WELCOME TO THE FORUM!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
does harrington say anything about hand history converters, paragraph formation, and/or blindly incoherent sentence structure?

make it simple, you'll get more feedback...WELCOME TO THE FORUM!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

At least he used correct spelling and grammar. And the hand converter is FUBAR.

[Nick M]

hehe rookies [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
http://clark5.net/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi. I would assume he has at least a pair at this point... possibly top pair or even a set. Check (and fold if he bets). Big slick alone is usually not good enough in these types of situations. Have a nice day!

[radio_on]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses. Yeah, check and call or fold depending on read seems right here most of the time. I picked up my Harrington to try to find a similar situation and it turns out he suggests the same (contrary to my claim above).