5/10 6-max(deep): Top two in battle of the blinds

[AceHiStation]

Villain is TAGgish at 20/10. How easy is this call? or fold? And as usual, I have the image of a maniac.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP ($925)
CO ($4249.85)
Button ($1239.25)
Hero ($2669.50)
BB ($1813.75)
UTG ($1194.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $30</font>, BB calls $25.

Flop: ($70) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $67</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB moves all-in</font>, Hero calls $1378.75.

[edge]

I think you see AA or a set a large majority of the time. I don't know exactly how the math works out, but I think it's pretty close as far as call/fold.

[punter11235]

I am not used to this stack sizes but I am not comfortable with callin this. I am a pussy and I would probably just call his raise to see how situation develops [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
It would be very easy call with standard 100BB stacks imo.

[tewall]

AA doesn't seem very likely, because BB just called pre-flop.

[tewall]

Some questions that come to mind are:
a)What kind of hands will he defend in this situation?
b)What does he think you have? Given he thinks you're a maniac, will he push a TPTK hand against you because he doesn't think you have anything?
c)Is he the type of player that is capable of going all-in on a draw?

The problem here is that if he has you beat, you're a huge dog. If he is on a draw, he's not nearly as a big a dog as you are if you're ahead. So even thought you're getting fairly decent odds to call here, you'd still have to be pretty sure Villain would push either with a draw or a hand worse than yours. If you hadn't mentioned your image as a maniac, I would have said fold, because most TAG's would have you beat here too often to warrant a call. Given your image as a maniac, I think it depends on how likely you think Villain would push you with a lesser hand. My gut is even in this case your call might not be +EV.

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
AA doesn't seem very likely, because BB just called pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AA is more likely than any other overpair. He smoothcalls preflop to trap and then pushes over top of Hero, thinking Hero is on a lesser overpair. With JJ or QQ, a TAG wouldn't play it so strongly because he would fear KK or AA.

[AEKDBet]

you're toast, fold


-44, 56

[thabadguy]

Only hand you are ahead of is AA, i dont think something like 9Td is likely because of his small raise.
I think you see 44, 56 more often than not.

[tewall]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AA is more likely than any other overpair. He smoothcalls preflop to trap and then pushes over top of Hero, thinking Hero is on a lesser overpair. With JJ or QQ, a TAG wouldn't play it so strongly because he would fear KK or AA.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an aside, but it's an interesting one. Do you think AA is more likely than 44, 77, or 88? There's 6 possible combinations of AA, and 5 for 44, 77, or 88. So from a probability standpoint, it's about equally likely. However, 44, 77, or 88 would almost certainly call pre-flop, whereas AA would more likely raise than not. KK would even more likely raise. So I would think 44, 77, or 88 would be more likely than AA or KK. What do you think?

[edge]

Honestly, I put that because I think AA is the highest probability, given that he called and posted the hand. It's kind of a metagame analysis. I think in a vaccuum, up until the point where he calls, he's more likely to be behind, so folding is probably the right move.