pocket nines

#1 11-03-2005, 07:34 PM

Button is fairly new to the game been playing about 10 hands, so no clue what he's like

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls, 4 folds, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)?

What now?

flopmonster · #2 11-03-2005, 07:35 PM

check/call river

ErrantNight · #3 11-03-2005, 07:39 PM

a non K non Q river would have led me to do my absolute very best to cap this river.

as it is... i'm torn between bet/call and check/raise/call... i think they're close... bet/call seems a lil weak... but i think you're good a solid portion of the time when raise... if you 3-bet and get capped you're not good very often... however, if you c/raise and get 3-bet you may still be good sometimes.

Nick C · #4 11-03-2005, 07:43 PM

What a cute flop slowplay on Button's part.

Button doesn't seem too concerned about his kicker on the turn. Maybe he thinks his trips with AQ/AJ are invincible, though. (Or maybe he has 88.)

Still, I think I'd check-call.

Bet-calling is my second choice. This would make sure at least one bet went in. I'm not really expecting Button all of a sudden to get scared, though.

Adam22 · #5 11-03-2005, 07:49 PM

you gotta raise those pf son.

davet · #6 11-03-2005, 07:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you gotta raise those pf son.

[/ QUOTE ]

W. Deranged · #7 11-03-2005, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
a non K non Q river would have led me to do my absolute very best to cap this river.

as it is... i'm torn between bet/call and check/raise/call... i think they're close... bet/call seems a lil weak... but i think you're good a solid portion of the time when raise... if you 3-bet and get capped you're not good very often... however, if you c/raise and get 3-bet you may still be good sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank God...

Anyone advocating check-calling this river is playing this hand WAY too weak. The only way we're losing here is if villain just rivered full with AK or flopped A8 (or the very unlikely A9). Villain clearly has an A here most of the time, and usually our full is beating his; the fact he capped the turn still is not enough for me to think my hand isn't good.

The decision is between bet-call and check-raise-call in my opinion. The K is a bad card in that AK is the hand he'd most likely get out of hand with on the turn and that just sucked out on us.

Currently, there are 9 (AK) + 9 (A8) + 3 (A9)=21 hands that are feasible that are beating us. The question is how many hands might villain have that we are beating. If he'd play AQ this way, that's 12 right there, and 12 more for each worse A. I think AQ and AJ are very reasonable here... that's 36 hands, and there is certainly plenty of possibility for other As. So I'm sort of thinking that on average we're ahead like 75% or more of the time or more on this river.

#8 11-03-2005, 08:56 PM

Mix it up. Raise or call PF, EP with the appropriate proportion based on the table. If you think you can limit your competition to folks you can outplay then raise more often, but 99 is likely to face overcards, which is nice if you are playing to the set, but squelching if you are against a couple competent opponents.

Nick C · #9 11-03-2005, 09:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a non K non Q river would have led me to do my absolute very best to cap this river.

as it is... i'm torn between bet/call and check/raise/call... i think they're close... bet/call seems a lil weak... but i think you're good a solid portion of the time when raise... if you 3-bet and get capped you're not good very often... however, if you c/raise and get 3-bet you may still be good sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank God...

Anyone advocating check-calling this river is playing this hand WAY too weak. The only way we're losing here is if villain just rivered full with AK or flopped A8 (or the very unlikely A9). Villain clearly has an A here most of the time, and usually our full is beating his; the fact he capped the turn still is not enough for me to think my hand isn't good.

The decision is between bet-call and check-raise-call in my opinion. The K is a bad card in that AK is the hand he'd most likely get out of hand with on the turn and that just sucked out on us.

Currently, there are 9 (AK) + 9 (A8) + 3 (A9)=21 hands that are feasible that are beating us. The question is how many hands might villain have that we are beating. If he'd play AQ this way, that's 12 right there, and 12 more for each worse A. I think AQ and AJ are very reasonable here... that's 36 hands, and there is certainly plenty of possibility for other As. So I'm sort of thinking that on average we're ahead like 75% or more of the time or more on this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think A9 should be discounted quite a bit. I don't think A8 is nearly as likely as AK, either. Meanwhile, probably we should give AA at least it's 1 combo's worth of weight. (But 88 is 3 combos and is also possible.)

I don't really know Paradise 2/4, but I'm thinking the 12/9 ratio we get for AQ vs. AK isn't too far off (though of course other hands are possible).

Our turn 3-bet should say one of two things to Villain: (1) We don't care that he has an ace, or (2) We fell for Villain's flop check and are still lingering in confusion.

I think there is some point where, if we get raised again, we're an underdog. I suspect this occurs when we get raised on the river or when our river checkraise gets 3-bet. In my opinion, if that second (or third) bet goes in, we lose more often than not. (And it's really unlikely that the first bet won't go in -- if we're worried about that, we shouldn't be going for a checkraise.)

Anyway, check-calling the river may not be best, but I don't think it's WAY too weak.

I do agree that if the river isn't a king or queen, there's much less reason to be worried and we should be hoping to go all the way to a cap on the river (though I'll be wincing a little if Villain caps on a jack).

hobbsmann · #10 11-03-2005, 09:15 PM

raise preflop.

bet/call the river.