AK unimproved river value bet?

Argus · #1 11-03-2005, 03:44 AM

SB is a TAG. I think he might fold too much, but I'll let you judge: his WTSD is 36%. The rest of his stats are 21/16.5/2.3 over 2100 hands (datamined). We don't have any significant history at this table.

UTG is a gold mine: 93/30/0.75 over an expensive (for him) 300 hands. He will showdown ace high, and call to the river with any two, though he only shows down his "better" hands.

When SB checks the river, should I value bet, hoping to fold AK or collect a bet from UTG?

Empire 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (11 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero?

mperich · #2 11-03-2005, 03:54 AM

River has no value. I usually fold the turn.

-Mike

Victor · #3 11-03-2005, 03:57 AM

pls fold the turn.

imported_leader · #4 11-03-2005, 04:01 AM

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pls fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain please. I've been calling in these type spots.

Victor · #5 11-03-2005, 04:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pls fold the turn.

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Explain please. I've been calling in these type spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

bc a q hit.

jdl22 · #6 11-03-2005, 04:45 AM

I agree with the fold turn people.

If you get amnesia and aren't aware of the river check you are drawing to six outs that must be highly discounted. He could easily have AQ or KQ (especially suited) here. In either case you have 3 outs. If he has AK you must also cut your outs in half. I don't think you have enough to continue. Sure sometimes you will win UI but that doesn't seem likely since SB has shown some strength and UTG will be ahead of you half the time with his random holdings.

imported_leader · #7 11-03-2005, 04:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the fold turn people.

If you get amnesia and aren't aware of the river check you are drawing to six outs that must be highly discounted. He could easily have AQ or KQ (especially suited) here. In either case you have 3 outs. If he has AK you must also cut your outs in half. I don't think you have enough to continue. Sure sometimes you will win UI but that doesn't seem likely since SB has shown some strength and UTG will be ahead of you half the time with his random holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Fold the turn it is

Argus · #8 11-03-2005, 05:01 AM

Thanks, this explanation is really great. At first I though, "Oh, the call's not that bad." Then you made me realise it was.

Jinx · #9 11-03-2005, 05:20 AM

fold the turn because UTG called. Certainly don't bet the river. If UTG wasn't there, I don't think a calldown is awful.

Argus · #10 11-03-2005, 05:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold the turn because UTG called. Certainly don't bet the river. If UTG wasn't there, I don't think a calldown is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG calling makes me want to call more, not less. I am ahead of him nearly always here. I still think the turn is a fold though.