$22: Card dead until..

Insty · #1 10-20-2005, 05:21 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter

CO (t800)
Hero (t545)
SB (t755)
BB (t780)
UTG (t1320)
UTG+1 (t645)
MP1 (t1190)
Villain (t550)
MP3 (t1415)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Villain raises to t150, 2 folds, Hero ?

Reads:
UTG has played about 50% of hands, but has folded this time.
Villain has played about 30% of hands on an otherwise moderately tight table, and has shown down 96o and KJo so far.

playtitleist · #2 10-20-2005, 05:32 PM

This is interesting to me, because villain just made Hero a pot.

Folded around, I might fold 77 here, because I am not all that fond of pushing for t75 and I won't call because the set-value is not high enough.

But, villain's bet makes this much more attractive at t175. Only problem is villain likes his hand to some degree and you prolly don't have much better than 50-50 at best. Your read on villain is a wide range, but probably not crazy.

I wouldn't be discouraged - push it and expect (hope) to take it down uncontested.

MegaBet · #3 10-20-2005, 05:42 PM

When someone at the $22s pops it up to 150 preflop, they are not folding for 400 more. Hope for a race, but I would push this. You could even just call and push any flop. Calling with, say, ace high on the flop is much harder than calling the raise preflop.

Insty · #4 10-21-2005, 04:39 AM

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When someone at the $22s pops it up to 150 preflop, they are not folding for 400 more. Hope for a race, but I would push this.

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Do I want a race in this situation? Given I'm going to be up against 2 overcards 95% of the time.
Can I afford to fold and wait for something better?

tigerite · #5 10-21-2005, 04:41 AM

Card dead, but you're down by 255, and it's level 3. I think you need a little more patience.

Oh and I ain't really bothered about how many hands he's played, how many has he raised? If he's loose but passive a raise is still going to be a strong hand.

Insty · #6 10-21-2005, 05:07 AM

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Card dead, but you're down by 255, and it's level 3. I think you need a little more patience.

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I donked off about 200 when my BB Kxs "check it down" river flush lost to a Full House.

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Oh and I ain't really bothered about how many hands he's played, how many has he raised? If he's loose but passive a raise is still going to be a strong hand.

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Good point.
He's raised a few hands, and taken down the blinds a few hands earlier with an identical raise.

tigerite · #7 10-21-2005, 05:16 AM

Right. How often do you think he'll fold if you re-push?

If it's 0%, you need him to be raising 33+,A8o+,A4s+,KJs+ here. If 25% then 44+,A8o+,A5s+,KJs+ (not really much difference, in other words). I don't think any higher percentages are very likely given his nature.

Do you think his raise is in that range.. if so then go ahead and push [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Scuba Chuck · #8 10-21-2005, 05:21 AM

If you've been card dead, where did your 250 chips go? In particular, there's about 100 chips unaccounted for.

Considering the fact that villain has shown down those hands, I'm certain you have no FE here. FWIW, I usually fold here. But I usually don't have a read like you're suggesting. Anyway, there's a point in every tournament where you will need to take a coinflip (usually). IMO, this decision here is certainly an easy $/hr decision. In terms of an ROI decision, it's far more debatable.

flyingmoose · #9 10-21-2005, 05:37 AM

When do the blinds go up? What do you think the odds are of grabbing some first-in viggorish at this table?

In my experience, when I'm shortstacked and the table is still close to full, I need to show down a hand to have a chance. Given the size of your table and the likelihood you'll be T150 shorter before you get a chance to steal, I like a push here.

Scuba Chuck · #10 10-21-2005, 05:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When do the blinds go up? What do you think the odds are of grabbing some first-in viggorish at this table?

In my experience, when I'm shortstacked and the table is still close to full, I need to show down a hand to have a chance. Given the size of your table and the likelihood you'll be T150 shorter before you get a chance to steal, I like a push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF are you talking about? At the moment, hero is 7 hands away from posting again. I'm not suggesting folding or pushing is better, I just don't follow your logic.

For argument's sake, let's say blinds went up next hand. Next hand hero is in the CO. You think he needs to battle here now because he will be t150 shorter before he gets a chance to steal?