Bubble: ATo hand

Scuba Chuck · #1 10-20-2005, 04:11 PM

Blinds 200/400 a 25

UTG 920
Button 4075
SB 6540
BB (hero) 1965

Preflop: Hero dealth A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, SB raises to t800 (minimum raise), Hero folds

I ran this through SGA for a standard maniac push and a call, and of course calling is no good. I'm not sure how much FE we have here. My read at the time was that villain could be doing this with an extremely wide range of hands, and that he's likely gonna call with top 50% of hands or so. I thought about calling, but I hate how my stack looks postflop if I whiff.

Anyhow, had villain moved allin, this is an easy decision, but the fact there may be some FE makes this a little more difficult. What's really challenging here is that the next hand villain likely makes a stand, or gets a free ride if folded to me and I have crap. Ugh.

zambonidrivr · #2 10-20-2005, 04:15 PM

Fold, UTG is broke in 2 hands. U push this villan ain't going anywhere with that stack

Scuba Chuck · #3 10-20-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, UTG is broke in 2 hands. U push this villan ain't going anywhere with that stack

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read this part?

[ QUOTE ]
What's really challenging here is that the next hand villain likely makes a stand, or gets a free ride if folded to me and I have crap. Ugh.

[/ QUOTE ]

zambonidrivr · #4 10-20-2005, 04:21 PM

true. but it also looks like big stack knows that raising any 2 every hand is +ev. i would expect him to do the same next hand. THANK YOU FOR THIS POST BECAUSE I AM TAKING A NEW LINE HERE. SHOVE THIS ALL DAY!

RobGW · #5 10-20-2005, 04:24 PM

Without a read, I'd shove my chips in. #1. You probably have the best hand. You might even have him dominated. #2. UTG is not gone in 2 hands. He can easily double up and then you are the shorty fighting for your life. #3. You might have more FE than you think. A min raise often means he is just trying to steal counting on you being scared to get involved. Of course this will depend on your opponent and your image etc. If you fold here you are left with 1500 with blinds this high you might not get another hand this good. By pushing back you send a message that you are not to be fckd with. If you win you are going to be ITM barring some sort of suckout. And you'll be in better poristion to win it all.

Scuba Chuck · #6 10-20-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
true. but it also looks like big stack knows that raising any 2 every hand is +ev. i would expect him to do the same next hand. THANK YOU FOR THIS POST BECAUSE I AM TAKING A NEW LINE HERE. SHOVE THIS ALL DAY!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if you're being serious or sarcastic, but raising any two is surely not +EV. Moving me allin with any two here is +EV.

pooh74 · #7 10-20-2005, 04:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds 200/400 a 25

UTG 920
Button 4075
SB 6540
BB (hero) 1965

Preflop: Hero dealth A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, SB raises to t800 (minimum raise), Hero folds

I ran this through SGA for a standard maniac push and a call, and of course calling is no good. I'm not sure how much FE we have here. My read at the time was that villain could be doing this with an extremely wide range of hands, and that he's likely gonna call with top 50% of hands or so. I thought about calling, but I hate how my stack looks postflop if I whiff.

Anyhow, had villain moved allin, this is an easy decision, but the fact there may be some FE makes this a little more difficult. What's really challenging here is that the next hand villain likely makes a stand, or gets a free ride if folded to me and I have crap. Ugh.

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This is a GOOD hand post...

Here is what makes it so damn difficult in my mind...

-You REALLY lack FE here, and you kinda don't want to be called.

-Shortie is not THAT short given the blinds. If you fold here and he gets a free pass, you guys are, for all intents and purposes, even.

-worse, if shortie makes a stand on the next hand(s) and wins, you are the crap-stack.

I think if shortie had less, this would be a fold...if you had 1000 more, I'd like my FE better.

given the blinds, and the ambiguous sizes of your stack and shortie's, I would push and pray...I dont think there is enough disparity to hold out for 3rd here...its close though.

Scuba Chuck · #8 10-20-2005, 05:08 PM

Pooh, u realize that you MUST have some FE here to believe that this move is +EV over the long haul. I hope we all realize that this is the cruxt of this hand/post.

kevkev60614 · #9 10-20-2005, 05:14 PM

You describe villain as if he's not a total donk. At the level you play at, I imagine SB would normally pushes this. Why the minraise? It's either so he can get away or because he wants to play with you. Any clue which?

If it's pretty unlikely he's trying to suck you in, I think you have to push. He might still call, but now if he does your hand looks good to double up.

pooh74 · #10 10-20-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pooh, u realize that you MUST have some FE here to believe that this move is +EV over the long haul. I hope we all realize that this is the cruxt of this hand/post.

[/ QUOTE ]

well you do have SOME fe...I didnt say you had zero. You just dont have enough really SCARE villain (he is getting ~1.7-1 which is better for you than I originally thought.) And based on his range here, (who knows...pretty wide?) I think it could be a mistake to call you...But I am not going to try and get inside villain's head.

I mean, geez, one always has a degree of FE...Ive seen some crazy stuff, i.e. minraise at 400bb and BB minraises back Sb folds, for example.

My only point is that I think this is borderline as to whether you have ENOUGH FE and whether shortie's stack is the kind of size where your standing to place is best left as is and NOT gambling with shotty FE.

I really dont think we can talk about FE w/o talking about shorty...they are so intertwined.

I always just see FE as a matter of degree, not kind.