Randomizing Play with Pairs: Probabilities

[DavidC]

Hey guys, this is off-topic, but I was kinda curious, so I wanted to work this out.

Before you sit down to play a session, pick two suits, and remember what order you picked them in.

Given the following chart:

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]... [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]... [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]... [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Probabilities:

1/6 your pair will be of the same two suits that you've chosen.

2/6 your pair will have two suits of the same colour

3/6 your pair will contain the first suit that you chose

4/6 your pair will not be the same colour

5/6 your pair will not be of the two suits that you chose

----

If you want something a little more precise than this: you'd like to get into the 12ths, then choose high/low and go with one option if it's in the high range and another if it's in the low range:

i.e. 2/12 your pair will be of the same two suits that you've chosen, and "low"
3/12 your pair will be ofthe same two suits that you've chosen, and "high"

So if you consider 88/77 the same hand in some situations, then you make 88 do one thing, and make 77 do another, if you are really on the edge of the percentage that you would like to work with.

The only problem that i see with this is that you have to avoid having either 1/12 or 11/12, as far as I can see, because I can't think of doing something that would give you both options... Oh well, you'll have to live with it.

---

By the time you guys get to the 150/300 game you should be doing this quite a bit. And no, I'm not doing this for unpaired cards. Not til I get to the 150/300 game myself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Also, for best results, you should change your suits as well as your "high/low" selection every time you do this. You should also change it randomly -- sometimes keeping the same values that you had last time -- in order to prevent your best opponents from picking up on patterns.

Now that I've figured out how to use this totally useless piece of information, I can finally go back to learning how to play overcards and mid-PP's. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[aargh57]

Is this some game theory stuff? If it is, I want no part in it.

[Redd]

Interesting. For online play, one could also use a die for the 1/6ths.

[bozlax]

[music]

Some-body's beeeeen reee-ding, H-P-F-A-P!

[/music]

Not that any of this matters until you get to about 4th-level thinking. A lot of the micro players you run into can't even get to 0th level thinking, e.g. "How did I get to the card room today?"

[bozlax]

Why just online? I'm a twitch (my wife calls me a "fidget") in addition to a nit, and I pretty much carry a pair of dice with me wherever I go (except to the craps table, of course). Instead of rifling your chips, just roll a die back and forth on the felt, look at it when you need an answer, otherwise just roll it back and forth.

[gharp]

In Harrington on Hold 'Em he recommends the look-at-your-watch method. You can use the second hand on your watch to help you mix things up -- for example, if it's in the last six seconds of the hour, do the thing you only do 10% of the time.

I agree with boz that, at the limits we play, straightforward play is usually better off and mixing it up isn't worth it. But now when I sit with DavidC in the 150/300 game I've just gained some valuable information... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PygmyHero]

The HoH method has already been mentioned, but I have read something similar in one other place: Krieger's books (I don't remember which one it was). His idea was basically the same as yours.

One quick example: let's say we are usually going to raise in EP with KK, except for the few times we mix it up. Krieger suggested that you raise with all KK and just limp with red kings (or black kings or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - you get the idea, but its easier to do it by color).

Of course that means you would raise 5/6 or the time and limp 1/6 of the time. IIRC Krieger felt you should raise here 90% of the time, and of course 1/6th is 16.6% repeating. So that's not bad as a quick and dirty way.

I think the major problem with a method like this is what if I think the right play is to limp 25% of the time. If I can only choose how to vary by the suits I can either limp 1/6 or 1/3 of the time. Anyway, you get the idea...

Most systems like this aren't going to work as you can't choose a guideline such that you get close enough to most different percentages. The HoH watch thing is an exception - that seems alright to me.

[silencio]

I think the best method for online poker is going by the last digit (or the two last digits) of the hand number (all sites have this, no?).

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. For online play, one could also use a die for the 1/6ths.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense.

Maybe you could use it for live play too. That might add to a "crazy" image. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
In Harrington on Hold 'Em he recommends the look-at-your-watch method. You can use the second hand on your watch to help you mix things up -- for example, if it's in the last six seconds of the hour, do the thing you only do 10% of the time.

I agree with boz that, at the limits we play, straightforward play is usually better off and mixing it up isn't worth it. But now when I sit with DavidC in the 150/300 game I've just gained some valuable information... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys are brilliant! I would have never thought of this (watch + hand number stuff).

I'll even get to work on my skillz at dividing by 60. This is SWEET! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]