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  #1  
Old 10-20-2005, 01:02 AM
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Default Flush Probability

I have 9 outs. What is probability or percent for me to hit on turn(one card to come), and on river(1 card to come)?
I am fully aware that it is around 33 percent TO the river. But I wanted to break it down. Thanks.
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  #2  
Old 10-20-2005, 01:08 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Flush Probability

[ QUOTE ]
I have 9 outs. What is probability or percent for me to hit on turn(one card to come), and on river(1 card to come)?
I am fully aware that it is around 33 percent TO the river. But I wanted to break it down. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

turn: 9/47
river: 9/46
turn or river: 9/47 + (1 - 9/47)*9/46
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  #3  
Old 10-23-2005, 11:43 PM
Felipe Felipe is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 85
Default Re: Flush Probability

52 cards in deck
you have two in your hand
flop and turn have 4
that leaves 46 in the deck
9 in the deck are hearts
so we divide

9/46 = percent chance your heart will hit the river ONLY when you're at the turn.

Most players use odds form, to determine if they have the right pot odds to call and see the flush. Poker players don't try to make a flush, or a pair, or a full house. They try to win money! that's the key (in case I needed to beat a dead horse)

so...
9 cards of 46 we need!
that leaves 35 that we don't need.
so...
cards we don't need:cards we need-----35:9
or reduced-----about 4:1

that means that pot should have 4 times that amount you are going to call for the call to be profitable. say you play 2/4 limit hold'em. THe turn has $12 dollars in it, and somebody bets $4 at you. The pot has $16 dollars and it is $4 to call. You are getting $16:$4 pot odds, or reduced 4:1, you can call!
..ramblin'
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