JJ - agonizing river fold

Isura · #1 10-19-2005, 01:46 PM

Villain is 33/11 over 200 hands. He seems decent. Turn and river are questionable. Should I bet more on the turn? Check/call, block bet, or fold the river? I'll post my thoughts in a bit. Thanks guys.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($101.40)
BB ($129.25)
Hero ($107.90)
MP ($54.90)
CO ($137.70)
Button ($144.38)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $7, Button calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button calls $12.

River: ($47.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $30, Hero folds.

#2 10-19-2005, 01:53 PM

I think this wouldn't be that hard of a fold, it's very possible this guy could be playing the queen I believe by cold calling you. I wouldn't put him on a draw with the bet that he made on the river, it looks to me that he either could've flopped a set on you or very possibly may have the case queens that could spell your doom. KQ and AQ are very possible hands that he could be playing, if not QJ suited and trips up on the turn and finally realizes that his hand is 90% good by the river.

JustToast · #3 10-19-2005, 01:56 PM

Doesn't this look like a flush draw for opponent? Obviously he could have a Q but he's awfully passive if that's the case.

I'm making a half-pot blocker on the end and folding to a raise. As played it looks to villain like you were betting on the come and he had the opportunity to steal it regardless of his cards.

elus2 · #4 10-19-2005, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this wouldn't be that hard of a fold, it's very possible this guy could be playing the queen I believe by cold calling you. I wouldn't put him on a draw with the bet that he made on the river, it looks to me that he either could've flopped a set on you or very possibly may have the case queens that could spell your doom. KQ and AQ are very possible hands that he could be playing, if not QJ suited and trips up on the turn and finally realizes that his hand is 90% good by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain's hand range easily includes a worse pocket pair or a flush draw. if villain had a draw then he has to bet the river to win the pot.

#5 10-19-2005, 02:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm making a half-pot blocker on the end and folding to a raise. As played it looks to villain like you were betting on the come and he had the opportunity to steal it regardless of his cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd do the same, but I tend to bet a little smaller, say 1/3 the pot.

4_2_it · #6 10-19-2005, 02:01 PM

If villain is decent, his river bet might be a blocker if he holds something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I think I probably make a blocking bet ($20) on the river and fold to a raise.

I might try check/calling the turn in an attempt to represent FPS and more importantly keep the pot size down so my river blocker only needs to be in the $10-$15 range.

Isura · #7 10-19-2005, 02:01 PM

Do you guys think I should bet more on the turn?

Hoopster81 · #8 10-19-2005, 02:06 PM

As long as you bet the turn, I would make exactly the same bet on the river as a blocker.

Isura · #9 10-19-2005, 03:57 PM

Thanks for the responses guys. It does seem that villain played the hand like a draw. There aren't that many hands with a Q that he cold calls preflop. Also, I'm thinking my turn bet was small enough so that I gain no new information about his hand when he calls the turn.

I'm still not sure if block bet or check/call is the better river line. Since villain seemed pretty taggish postflop, he would realize that this was a great spot for him to bluff. He showed his 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I type "Is that supposed to put me on tilt?" in the chat. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

arod15 · #10 10-19-2005, 04:10 PM

re-raise that flop. Make it 20 to go. Then you if he comes back over the top you can be lmost 100% sure your beat and toss it. Its essentially the same as calling the turn bet. Make it 20 see where your at and proceed with caution to a call.....