Does Harry Dan give me odds?

Like most 2+2ers, I'm a winning player at nl, but I suspect most of us learned more than we expected from Harrington's new books. In the shortrun, i think my increased success is largely from "pulling the trigger" sooner and making a little more use of the "first in vigorish".

I've been playing for years, but only recently starting to watch TV poker. I keep seeing Gus Hanson policing the tables with strange calls and sucking out. After seeing him win a few tournaments this way I still wasnt a believer until I read Harrington's book.

It looks like he might be advising a lot more calling than Im usually comfortable with. Looking at my shortrun failures, i keep getting punished for calling out of "odds". Im comfortable looking at these shortrun results because they are more of what I've always seen second hand.

I think part of the problem might be that I mostly just play sit-n-gos where chip values get distorted more than in multis. With chip distortion, the "first in vig" is usually bigger than in multis which is what Harrington was talking about. In any event I think I made a very bad call in this hand and I want to hear what everyone has to say.

Seat 2: anunAx ( $855 )
Seat 3: BlizzardStrm ( $960 )
Seat 4: KingBaldor ( $1690 )
Seat 5: ME ( $1390 )
Seat 6: pavel73 ( $1575 )
Seat 7: ralph64 ( $855 )
Seat 8: BJacko19 ( $800 )
Seat 10: GaneshParens ( $1875 )
Trny:16680243 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ME [ Ah Jc ]
>You have options at Table 65755 Table!.
KingBaldor folds.
ME raises [250].
pavel73 folds.
ralph64 is all-In [855]
BJacko19 folds.
GaneshParens folds.
anunAx folds.
BlizzardStrm folds.
ME calls [605].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 6c, Qc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
ME shows [ Ah, Jc ] high card ace.
ralph64 shows [ As, Kc ] high card ace.
ralph64 wins 1860 chips from the main pot with high card ace with king kicker.

[tigerite]

Fold preflop

This has nothing to do with odds.

[Exitonly]

er.. fold that instead of raising, but yea, you're getting 2:1 after he pushes, no way you're worse than that vs his 8BB range.

You don't typically hear about 'folding to survive' when theres 8 people left in a SnG.


edit: i change "theres no way you're behidn that range" to, you very well could be behind that range more than 2:1.

But still i think a call, marginally.

[tigerite]

This is true.

Anyway, seeing as you got into this mess, you should only call if he's pushing 66+,AT+ or looser. How likely this is, I cannot tell, that's what reads are for.

[brimstone1]

With 13BB I think this can be a very (VERY) marginal +EV push... otherwise fold, you don't need this pot.

So if you feel you absolutely must get involved with this hand, push.

Betting anything other than all-in certainly isn't my line here.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
With 13BB I think this can be a very (VERY) marginal +EV push... otherwise fold, you don't need this pot.

So if you feel you absolutely must get involved with this hand, push.

Betting anything other than all-in certainly isn't my line here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like a push here. Not many ranges except where all bar the blinds are very tight works. By very tight I mean 99+, AQ+ in most cases and probably JJ+, AK in some. If you had 300 chips less, then yeah, go for it.

[Exitonly]

yea i just plugged the info into my 'equity calculator' and i think pushing here is abuot +.7BB's

but i'm still not comfortable playing this hand at all, and fold PF.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
yea i just plugged the info into my 'equity calculator' and i think pushing here is abuot +.7BB's

but i'm still not comfortable playing this hand at all, and fold PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, not sure where you're getting that from. As I said the call ranges for all bar the blinds has to be very tight.

Yeah, I dont know what I was thinking. When it gets late, every once in a while I have a hard time translating percentages into odds which is why I called. I think "odds,fold to survive"

I expect allin in has:
AK,AQ,KK,QQ or JJ about 65% of the time (i win 25%)
a lower pair about 25% (I win 50%)
Ax about 5% (I win 25%)
AA about 1% (I lose)
AJ about 1% (tie)
other 3% (I win 70%)
Its rough, but if its true I win almost 1 in 3.
$1255 in the pot, $605 to call or 3-1