#1
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Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
This is Part Five of our second "Play a Hand with the Masters". If you haven't already contributed to Part One, Part Two, Part Three, and Part Four you should do so first.
Setup $100+9 Party Poker MTT Blinds 50/100 Hero is Gigabet No strong read on villain Stacks Hero: t2670 Villain: 2915 Pre-Flop Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG folds. Hero raises to t275. All fold to the BB who calls. Flop Pot: t600 Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] BB checks. Hero bets t300. BB raises to t600. Hero calls t300. Turn Pot: t1800 Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB bets t800. Hero calls t800. River Pot: t3400 River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB checks. Action is on the hero. Do you check or bet? If you bet, how much and why? |
#2
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
Yes I would move allin. It's not possible for our opponent to have QTo and decide to check the river unless he's a bad player, because he knows we will bet every single hand that beats him and check some that don't, yet call with almost everything. Basically when the pot is this huge, our opponent will bet any hand that stands to be the best, because he knows we are pot committed. It's very difficult to put them on a hand that can beat AK here. |
#3
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
Mooooooooo donk has like Ax or KQ
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#4
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
Obviously any bet will commit us, and with the size of the pot I can't imagine any other bet than allin. So the question is if there is value in betting. We are not going to get a better hand to fold, every full house, flush (although QTd is the only possible flush hand I see), straight is calling us, so we have no folding equity. Since we can't be raised after this bet it only needs to win 51% of the time that it is called to be +EV. The range of calling hands I would put BB on (that have made it this far) would be AJ, KJ, QT, JJ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AT. Although I dont see villian checking the river with a full house, so I'd eliminate JJ, KK, AA, AJ, KJ from his calling range. That leaves QT vs AQ, AT and AK is a chop. Theres 16 ways to make QT and 16 ways to make AQ or AT. So that leads me to the conclusion that it really doesnt matter either way in terms of chipEV, but throwing in the possibility that he is getting cute with a FH, and if a decision is neutral I'm taking the one that leaves me with some chips, I check behind.
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#5
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
I think there is very little chance that QT checks the river. |
#6
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
Fantastic, we've turned down value twice in this hand now and now we have to deal with a serious scare card. We no longer beat KJ, AJ, QJ, TJ, or, of course, 2 diamonds.
The good news is, villain checked. From the villain's perspective, I can't imagine how Hero seems anything but weak at this point so this seems like a very strange place to go for a check raise (unless he reads Hero as being so weak, he doesn't see himself getting money out of him on the river unless it is on a bluff). Villain may well be checking with a weak flush which beats us, or A10 which we beat handily. However, I don't know, because Hero has done a bad job of applying the kind of pressure that makes a villain reveal his holdings. I check here. If I lost and got sucked out on or won but missed some value, I have no one to blame but myself. If I lost and was beat the whole way, I still don't see that as vindicating the way the hand was played, Hero had position and a good hand, but let the villain take the driver's seat the whole way. |
#7
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
I don't think we can bluff out a hand that beats us, or get a hand to call us that we have beat with a value bet. I check and am happy if we win.
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#8
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
I push.
Big Pot, I assume he calls with a huge range including weak aces hoping that he now chops. I'm guessing two diamonds, a straight, or a jack push here thinking the same thing (big pot other guy must call) |
#9
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
I check behind. Although the J is unlikely to have helped villian as he would have bet it, there is still a chance that he might feel he is inducing a bet from us by checking. The J of diamonds is one of the worst cards for our hand. The pot is huge already, we are WAWB, just check and see.
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#10
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
Was about to write "easy push" when I decided to think about it. Let's say villain calls a push here with AQ (8), AT (8), AJ (4), KJ (6), QJs (2)(to allow for the chance that villain played this oddly), TQ (16), KQs (2)(again, to allow for weird villain), AA(1),KK(1),JJ(1). That means we're behind his calling range and should check [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].
Anyone got a range that calls us here that we beat? Do you think villain has KQ or KT frequently enough to make a push here profitable? Edit: I forgot the fact hat villain checked. I doubt he does this with a boat or a straight. I push. |
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