$55 - KQs - POST FLOP

[Scuba Chuck]

So I go to bed early last night, wake up early, and this is what's on my mind. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
(from memory)

No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10 (10 handed)

UTG (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t1000)
MP3 (t1000)
CO (t1000)
Hero (t1000)
SB (t1000)
BB (t1000)

Blinds (5/10)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls t10, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t10, <font color="red"> Hero calls t10</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t60) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="red"> hero bets t60</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls t60, CO folds.

Turn: (t180) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
MP2 bets t180, <font color="red"> Hero folds ?? </font>

Comments on the flop and turn welcome.
Also, had MP2 checked the turn, should I bet or take the free card?

My thoughts at the time: I've only got 70 chips invested so far. If the river is a blank, I don't think I can call another bet, even if it's a Q. But I have a bunch of outs.

This mornings thoughts: I'm getting 2:1 on the call. I have 3 Js to the nut straight, and 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s to the 2nd nut flush. There's a good chance one J is gone, so let's say optimistically 10 outs. 3.6:1. This is still a good fold?

[Karak567]

I would have pushed. I play the 55s uber aggressive and find I pick up a lot of early pots this way. A lead into you on the turn might be a bluff of some kind.

Even if you are called, you still have a bunch of outs!

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have pushed. I play the 55s uber aggressive and find I pick up a lot of early pots this way. A lead into you on the turn might be a bluff of some kind.

Even if you are called, you still have a bunch of outs!

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice that this is not a Party game. There is lots of early play (and this is the very first hand). Furthermore, this is precisely a WA/WB situation, although I do have a ~ 22% chance at the nuts (or 2nd nuts). Frankly, I don't care for a push here.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have pushed. I play the 55s uber aggressive and find I pick up a lot of early pots this way. A lead into you on the turn might be a bluff of some kind.

Even if you are called, you still have a bunch of outs!

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice that this is not a Party game. There is lots of early play (and this is the very first hand). Furthermore, this is precisely a WA/WB situation, although I do have a ~ 22% chance at the nuts (or 2nd nuts). Frankly, I don't care for a push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, I just looked at the stack sizes and assumed it was a Party game. With the fast rising blinds of Party, I could see a push here. If this is a deeper stacked, slower game, I can understand your line, I suppose.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

Ah, I just looked at the stack sizes and assumed it was a Party game. With the fast rising blinds of Party, I could see a push here. If this is a deeper stacked, slower game, I can understand your line, I suppose.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not deeper stacked, but there is one extra early level (specifically level 1 at 5/10). That being said, I'm not sure if I like this line at Party either.

[Karak567]

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[ QUOTE ]

Ah, I just looked at the stack sizes and assumed it was a Party game. With the fast rising blinds of Party, I could see a push here. If this is a deeper stacked, slower game, I can understand your line, I suppose.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not deeper stacked, but there is one extra early level (specifically level 1 at 5/10). That being said, I'm not sure if I like this line at Party either.

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But think about it, what is villain leading out into you on the turn with? If he just made the nut straight, would he really lead into you with a pot sized bet?

If he doesn't have a straight, then you can add in a K (if he has a lower two pair) and MAYBE a Q (if he doesn't have a J) as an out. Plus if he doesn't have the straight, you pick up that extra J, not to mention all those flush outs.

I do not think a made, strong hand is leading into you with a pot sized bet here. He can't assume you were betting with a flush draw, either. Maybe I am giving the villain too much credit for being able to think...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]


But think about it, what is villain leading out into you on the turn with? If he just made the nut straight, would he really lead into you with a pot sized bet?

If he doesn't have a straight, then you can add in a K (if he has a lower two pair) and MAYBE a Q (if he doesn't have a J) as an out. Plus if he doesn't have the straight, you pick up that extra J, not to mention all those flush outs.

I do not think a made, strong hand is leading into you with a pot sized bet here. He can't assume you were betting with a flush draw, either. Maybe I am giving the villain too much credit for being able to think...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you just drew to the nut straight, would you let the flush draw off cheap?

The hand range I put villain on are QJ, KJ, KT, K9, another KQ, and there is of course a set maybe (although not likely a set of Ks). This seems like an awfully narrow field. Of course, there is always the possibility of Kx.

Anyway, to answer your question, I would pot it if I had the straight here.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


But think about it, what is villain leading out into you on the turn with? If he just made the nut straight, would he really lead into you with a pot sized bet?

If he doesn't have a straight, then you can add in a K (if he has a lower two pair) and MAYBE a Q (if he doesn't have a J) as an out. Plus if he doesn't have the straight, you pick up that extra J, not to mention all those flush outs.

I do not think a made, strong hand is leading into you with a pot sized bet here. He can't assume you were betting with a flush draw, either. Maybe I am giving the villain too much credit for being able to think...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you just drew to the nut straight, would you let the flush draw off cheap?

The hand range I put villain on are QJ, KJ, KT, K9, another KQ, and there is of course a set maybe (although not likely a set of Ks). This seems like an awfully narrow field. Of course, there is always the possibility of Kx.

Anyway, to answer your question, I would pot it if I had the straight here.

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I would lead for slightly less than the pot. A pot sized bet here just looks too aggressive for a made hand. Maybe 125-150ish, still does not let the flush draw off anywhere near cheap. But that's not the issue.

I really think you may be ahead here enough of the time or get ahead here often enough for this to be +EV. I think to really look at this we should establish a hand range for the villain and run the EV numbers on this.

Any reads on the villain? Should have asked this sooner. I know it's the first hand, but have you seen him before?

[Karak567]

Another thought I just had:

Villain called a pot sized bet on the flop. Obviously this does not give him his odds to draw and I find it hard to believe villain can justify this with implied odds this early in the tournament. This may change my line a bit as well and tell me a little bit about the villain and what he has.

If he had the straight draw, he may be weak and weak players love to slowplay and trap. Thus a weak player most of the time will not lead into you.

Maybe villain has a flush draw?

[Scuba Chuck]

Karak, how often do you notice hold'em fish will call bets on the flop when the pot is small. That's one thing I liked about making the flop bet, is that it limits the field, and helps me narrow a hand range with turn action.

I agree that I may be ahead here enough of the time, but I'm not sure if I could call a river bet UI. That's where I'm having difficulties. If I felt villain could check the river, so I could check-behind (UI), that would be easier.

With regards to slowplaying, villain may have already slow played. We missed one more hand. J8. That K is a scare card to that hand. Obviously a push could get a better hand to fold here, but I think we're giving the fish too much credit.

Frankly, I think I was up against KT or QJ. But I have no reason nor read to make this assumption.