Value bet on the river?

deception5 · #1 10-13-2005, 11:07 PM

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero...

lautzutao · #2 10-13-2005, 11:07 PM

Definitely.

Would you have called a donk?

Rev. Good Will · #3 10-13-2005, 11:09 PM

erm, so the 2/5/6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will call?

check it, no value here

deception5 · #4 10-13-2005, 11:10 PM

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Would you have called a donk?

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Yup.

deception5 · #5 10-13-2005, 11:10 PM

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erm, so the 2/5/6 will call?

check it, no value here

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Don't forget non-flush hands.

lautzutao · #6 10-13-2005, 11:14 PM

why wouldn't a T, J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] bet out here if they had it. They're afraid of an Ace from hero? Assuming a Q would bet here...

Rev. Good Will · #7 10-13-2005, 11:46 PM

alot of passive players won't bet without the nuts or 2nd nuts

#8 10-13-2005, 11:46 PM

*grunch*
Hands like these show me how little I know.

I bet.
IMO. Chance of c\r is almost 0. I also think there is just as much chance someone holds the 9TorJ:hearts: as someone folding it to a bet.
Therefore, a bet can only be +ve EV.

- Let me see how wrong I am

xenthebrain · #9 10-14-2005, 08:31 AM

I really don't want to get c/r here with the low flush.
And there are few hands that will call us that we beat, probably only the strongest non-flush holdings.
And even a better flush might just have checked fearing the A or K.

deception5 · #10 10-14-2005, 10:54 AM

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I really don't want to get c/r here with the low flush.

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But really how often is a low flush going to check/raise me on a 4-flush board when I could have just checked behind?

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And there are few hands that will call us that we beat, probably only the strongest non-flush holdings.

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I'm thinking after the lack of strength I've shown I may even get called by top pair here.

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And even a better flush might just have checked fearing the A or K.

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This is absolutely true and the crux of the question imho.