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Question on SSHE, Equity, How # of players affects decisions
Straight out of Hand Quizzes -- Flop Play SSHE
"You have 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the big blind. The player under the gun raises, and three players cold-call. You call (10.5 small bets). The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving you a gutshot and a flush draw. What should you do? Answer: Check with the intention of raising a bet from early position." pg. 274-275 SSHE Hypothesis: <font color="blue">The number of players in the pot determines whether you should check-raise or check-call.</font> So you check with the intention of raising and believe you need to hit one of your 13 outs (four 5's and nine [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s) to win. The pf raiser bets, but all three cold-callers fold and it is back to you (11.5 small bets). You'll hit an out on the turn 28% (13/46) of the time but you have a chance to hit the river as well so you have a 29% chance (13/45) to hit the river if you don't hit the turn. Question #1: How do these two percentages (28%, on the flop for the turn and 29%, on the turn for the river) combine to give you an estimate of how often your draw comes in when you are on the flop? I think this might be simple but I'm kinda stoopid. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Question #2: Say this percentage, that your draw will come in by the river, is 42%. Is this number your equity in the hand? Back to the hand . . . There are 11.5 small bets in the pot and the action is back to you, head up with pf raiser who bet the flop. If your equity is 42%, his must be around 58% barring the chance of a split pot. Question #3: Assuming there is no chance the pf raiser is going to fold to a raise calling is the best option because you are getting 11.5-1 and you will make your draw 42% of the time or about one in 2.4 times or 2.4-1. You should <font color="red">call</font> because your equity (42%) is less than his (58%)??? Now, say one of the pf cold-callers called the pf raiser's flop bet and the action is back to you (12.5 small bets) and you believe he has a pair of tens or a hand that you can beat if your draw comes in. Question #4: Assuming your equity is above 1/3 or 33%, you should <font color="red">raise</font> when the action is back to you because you have an edge in equity here, while when you were heads up with the pf raiser you did not??? Conclusion:<font color="blue"> In this hand, the addition of one player changed our flop action from a check-call to a check-raise.</font> Thanks for any input or swear words you guys can give. Edit: Whoops I meant to post in Micros where I play, but any words of wisdom from you guys would be much appreciated. |
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Re: Question on SSHE, Equity, How # of players affects decisions
[ QUOTE ]
Question #1: How do these two percentages (28%, on the flop for the turn and 29%, on the turn for the river) combine to give you an estimate of how often your draw comes in when you are on the flop? I think this might be simple but I'm kinda stoopid. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Mathematically, the solution is (13/46) + (33/46) * (13/45) = 48%. The draw other hits on the turn (with probability 13/46) or it doesn't (with probability 33/46). If it doesn't hit on the turn, there is a 13/45 chance that it hits on the river. There are no other possibilities. You can obtain a rough estimate via the calculation (number of outs) * 4. In this case we'd obtain that our draw will hit rougly 13 * 4 = 52% of the time. [ QUOTE ] Question #2: Say this percentage, that your draw will come in by the river, is 42%. Is this number your equity in the hand? [/ QUOTE ] It's a rough estimate of your equity in the hand. Your equity could be lower if a higher flush draw is out or if someone has a set. [ QUOTE ] Back to the hand . . . There are 11.5 small bets in the pot and the action is back to you, head up with pf raiser who bet the flop. If your equity is 42%, his must be around 58% barring the chance of a split pot. Question #3: Assuming there is no chance the pf raiser is going to fold to a raise calling is the best option because you are getting 11.5-1 and you will make your draw 42% of the time or about one in 2.4 times or 2.4-1. You should <font color="red">call</font> because your equity (42%) is less than his (58%)??? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. If you ignore the size of the pot, you are losing money postflop with each bet you put in. [ QUOTE ] Now, say one of the pf cold-callers called the pf raiser's flop bet and the action is back to you (12.5 small bets) and you believe he has a pair of tens or a hand that you can beat if your draw comes in. Question #4: Assuming your equity is above 1/3 or 33%, you should <font color="red">raise</font> when the action is back to you because you have an edge in equity here, while when you were heads up with the pf raiser you did not??? [/ QUOTE ] Correct. However you should take into consideration things such as how likely the pf raiser is to 3-bet and the caller to fold to that 3-bet. |
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Re: Question on SSHE, Equity, How # of players affects decisions
[bow] Awesome [/bow]
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Re: Question on SSHE, Equity, How # of players affects decisions
I think the calculations need to be based on 12 outs - 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s + 3 remaining 5's...
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