Short Stack UTG - Just After Bubble

[Shorty35]

We all know that just after the bubble bursts play loosens considerably. Thus we can be pretty sure that a short stack push will be called by at least one player if not more than one. So given this dynamic, how should hero play this hand UTG?

Stars $100 - 18 spots pay, 18 players left. Spots 10-18 get the same amount. Bubble burst on the prior hand. Hero is UTG and is the short stack in the tourney with 4xBB ($4800) and is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. (I became short stack a few hands prior when I ran JJ into AA)

My initial reaction was to push (as I would normally UTG with any two and 3x the BB).

But consider the following:

1) it is a certainty that a few players will bust in the next few hands in the post bubble frenzy (there were several stacks at less than 10x the BB)

2) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a pretty decent hand, but against 8 players left to act its value declines significantly (would I rather push with JTos against only 3 players?)

3) If I take the blinds but double up sometime in that orbit I will get another orbit to get a premium hand. (i.e. 4xBB and 2.5xBB arent too terribly different)

So I began wondering whether it is +$EV to take the blinds and wait for better position (meaning a greater likelihood that I get HU rather than called in several places) and/or a better hand even if it means that I only have 2.5x the BB and 7 hands to go.

I am pretty certain that there is a mathematical aswer to this one - I seem to recall a thread in the STT forum about open pushing standards given the number of players left to act that prolly has some applicability here.

[nath]

On point 1: It doesn't matter if other people are about to go broke because nine of them have to for the payouts to move up. That's not happening yet, and it won't happen fast enough for you to sneak into the final table.

On point 2: One lesson I learned the hard way is that small suited aces suck to push from EP.
Then again, as low as four big blinds, I might do it anyway. Especially with the antes. You don't have time to wait when you're this short, at least not if you're trying to win.

On point 3: There is most definitely a difference-- 4xBB is 60% more than 2.5xBB. Much greater folding equity, more chips when you are called and double up, etc.

So all in all I probably push even though I don't like it.

[betgo]

A3s is a hand you like to push with in late position, not UTG. You get 3-2 pot odds against one opponent. You are down 7-3 against a pp or Ax. If you get called by KQ or something or some semirandom cards in the blinds, you are ahead. There is some chance you will pick up the blinds. I think you have to push. The alternative is to defend one of your blinds.

I would probably have pushed with anything the previous hands you were short stacked in early position. With the bubble, you would have less chance of being called, partly because people would give you credit for a strong hand rahter than a desperation move. Random cards play about as well as A3s from early position allin.

If your stack is so small that doubling up wouldn't give you much chance at the final table, I guess you can limp into the money. I would have to see the stack sizes, but ignoring the bubble, even short stacked, might be good strategy.

[Shorty35]

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On point 1: It doesn't matter if other people are about to go broke because nine of them have to for the payouts to move up. That's not happening yet, and it won't happen fast enough for you to sneak into the final table.

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What I meant wasnt that I could sneak into the final table in the next several hands. Only that I could be in a position where I "only" need to overtake 4 or 5 players to get there. I need to double up twice (or more) either way.

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On point 2: One lesson I learned the hard way is that small suited aces suck to push from EP.
Then again, as low as four big blinds, I might do it anyway. Especially with the antes. You don't have time to wait when you're this short, at least not if you're trying to win.

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All true. I dont think I have ANY fold equity now (particularly not just after the bubble), which makes the low Ace even worse.

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On point 3: There is most definitely a difference-- 4xBB is 60% more than 2.5xBB. Much greater folding equity, more chips when you are called and double up, etc.

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The law of small numbers applies here however. 60% more than a small number is still a small number. Either way, I need to double twice (at least) soon. No doubt that it is a huge hit losing 1.5 BB's, but the question is whether the -CEV there is outweighted by a greater likelihood of getting in with a better hand (or even a worse hand against what I know to be one villan - maybe even a random hand in the blind) later

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So all in all I probably push even though I don't like it.

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FWIW, I came out here too - I just wish there was more math behind my decision [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Shorty35]

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I would probably have pushed with anything the previous hands you were short stacked in early position. With the bubble, you would have less chance of being called, partly because people would give you credit for a strong hand rahter than a desperation move. Random cards play about as well as A3s from early position allin.



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I became short only three hands prior with JJ vs AA; I pushed one of the two hands after - so there isnt any more pushing I can do [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Since we are already in the money, this is entirely about the best mechanism to get to 9th place or better. I think doubling twice gives me a fighting chance, and I think I need to double twice (and only twice) regardless whether I take the blinds this round.

[billyjex]

This is an easy push. Especially with the antes at stars, you do not have any time to wait for any hand. An ace is good enough.

You're at the point where you just have to get lucky. You should feel blessed to have a suited ace here.

[nath]

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60% more than a small number is still a small number.

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But it can get you another round around the table-- or if you manage to get it in later and double up, it becomes 120%. Don't underestimate the value of increasing your stack by a large percentage. Yeah, you're still short, but a huge pickup like that is probably one less all-in you'll have to survive.