Bad Beat, Bad Karma

[MuckJagger]

Howdy, all ~~

If you flop a monster, do you play a monster?

Caveat: whinybadbeat symphony follows. I guess I’m looking for confirmation that I played the hand as well as I could have. It looks as though it was one of those “you’re hosed no matter what you do” situations.

We’re down to the final table in an online $33 Omaha high-low tournament at PartyPoker yesterday. 10 places paid on 66 entries. First place was around $550 and 10th basically got your entry fee back plus bus fare.

I’m in a fairly solid third place out of the 10 remaining players with $8K in chips; chip stacks range from $12K+ to $2K+. I thought I could likely have finished around 6th or 7th just by posting and folding – but who wants to do that?

For what it’s worth, I normally play at ACR, and make the final table often – although usually woefully underchipped – I am very likely the God of 7th place.

I’m in the big blind. Blinds are only $250 and $500, so it’s still very early at the final table.

I get 9h-Qh-Ts-3c – a textbook definition of "ugh." If anyone raises, I’m history. I’ll confess to playing bad hands occasionally – no rock, I – but I can smell when the meat goes bad. Five(!) people call the $500. I check. I know some people are strong enough players to fold an unraised big blind pre-flop, but I'm nowhere near that caliber of player.

Flop comes down 9d, Qs, Qc. Okay, so I flop *the* monster, with no chance of a low split. This is a good thing, right?

Small blind checks, I check. I'm sure this is a mistake, but I thought that if someone bet, I could reraise all in.

Unfortunately, it's the chip leader who bets $3,000. I'm thinking "case queen." The player after the chip leader folds, so I reraise all in. The remaining players fold. No dummies at the final table, except maybe for ME.

The chip leader had about $8,500 left, and calling would cost him roughly half his remaining stack. He did think about it a considerable time before he called. With $13,500 in the pot, he was getting good odds for his call assuming he did have the case queen. Or, am I interpreting this wrong – did he make a bad call here? 3-1 odds are pretty good, especially if you have chips remaining, you have overcards and you don't think your opponent has the full house. If he thought I had the boat, then he was betting two-thirds of his chips on a six-outer.

My intent was to try and get him off his queen assuming he wasn't already tied with me, reraising all in to make any possible call as difficult for him as possible. If he folds, the $13,500 in the pot puts me in a strong position for a top-three finish.

The turn and the flop were a jack and an ace, both higher cards than my 9. When I saw them I immediately thought I was dead. Sure enough, he had a queen and an ace, and IGHN.

So was there any possible way I could have played this hand that would have left me with any chips, other than a folding pre-flop? If the idea is to get all your money in when you have the best of it...

Did I play this hand okay, lousy -- or was it simply one of those "poker happens" situations?

As always, comments appreciated. Thanks for sharing my whine!

Mike

[ohkanada]

It happens. You had all the money in when you were a big favorite. You didn't want to see a Jack/King/Ace and unfortunately you saw 2 of them.

Ken Poklitar

[Greg (FossilMan)]

> I know some people are strong enough players to fold an
> unraised big blind pre-flop, but I'm nowhere near that
> caliber of player.

Eh?

Why would anyone ever fold their big blind to no raise? Certainly no "high caliber" player would ever do so.

You're thinking in the black light of hindsight after a bad beat.

And yes, you're stuck here. You flopped the nuts. The absolute worst case scenario is he has you tied now, and has two overcards to hit to beat you. Of course, if he has two overcards, you still have one, the T. So, at worst, you're playing for a likely tie and a better (though small) chance of losing than winning if somebody gets lucky. On the other hand, if he has Q-AKJ, he has 9 outs to beat you, which leaves you the winner ONLY about 2/3 of the time.

If I can get my money all-in as the 2/3 winner, I'll do it everytime. So, no mistake here no matter what.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[MuckJagger]

Hi, Greg ~~

>>Why would anyone ever fold their big blind to no raise? >>Certainly no "high caliber" player would ever do so.

Boy, am I happy to hear this. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

I've seen this done a number of times online, particularly at final tables when people are trying to move up a notch or two. I'd assumed it was a matter of discipline for someone to give up a mediocre hand pre-flop so as not to be tempted if, for example, you flop a small pair that could knock you dead when several other players have considerably smaller stacks. I'll take free cards no matter what I have -- but since I'm only a marginal player at best, I assumed it was yet another, if minor, flaw in my game. It's great to hear otherwise.

Mike

[cferejohn]

I'm with Greg. Any time you can get 3 free cards, you are a fool not to do so. I see people doing this (or more often folding to no bet on the flop) all the time. I just smile.

[iblucky4u2]

Free cards - count me in! No way will I ever fold a BB hand that has not been raised.

As for folding after the flop with no bet - hey, why waste time with the above hand when the flop comes KKK or some other totally non-matching hand that you cannot win and will not call any bets - especially if I can get a quick drink or bathroom break [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[Guy McSucker]

I can't understand why anyone would be "disciplined" enough to fold an unraised BB hand preflop, but not enough to get away from a potentially expensive tempter on the flop.

Guy.

[Nottom]

You'd certainly be happy you had the discipline to fold pre-flop if the flop came Th Jh Kh wouldn't you. When you are getting infinite odds to call, you are a fool to fold.

[DeliciousDi]

In tourney play I fold almost everything if I have a commanding tournament chip lead as one of the final four or five because I see no advantage in fighting it out with three or four opponents if I can wait to be in the final two or three, "in the money" for sure instead of getting knocked down to seventh or something for no good reason - meanwhile playing the Monsters enough to avoid being wiped out by the Blinds - why fight for first place if I already have it? - so I fold the unraised BB under the guidance of the dictum "fold 'em if you don't got 'em" if I don't have them - and I recorded a hundred hands where I got hurt by thinking I had made a hand by sticking around with that unraised BB. Probably I'm wrong, but it seems to me to work out that odds have less meaning here than in early tourney play - if I have the nuts or the chips to dominate, I go for it but if not, I fold - and I'm not adverse to splitting the prize money with the other top three: weak? Maybe so, but I have several thousand dollars racked up and I never made a deposit, playing in freerolls (mostly Dynamite)until I had won enough to enter $ tourneys. It took me a year to accumulate $500.00 but I've made $1,700.00 in the past month (about 25 hours of play)and I won only one first place!

[Nottom]

I'd be happy to accept the fact that you see the flop and fold if its not the nuts, but not seeing the flop at all is just silly.