Low M decision making

[lotus776]

Alright, tell me what you think:

Single table Tourney: 6 players remaining blinds 200/400, no ante
-Folds around to the blinds
-I'm in the small with: 1860
-and the big has: 2240

I'm holding 22 and decide to go all-in because my M (ratio of the blinds to my stack measuring the number of revolutions that I can complete from that point on) is 3 (1800/600) his M is about 3.5 to 4.
-My decision is based on his previous activity which included playing mostly Ax (lowest 9) suited w/o raising preflop and any other two high cards suited or not or any pair and his stack had been flucuating a great deal due to some bad beats. Overall I considered him a patient player who attacked at the right moments but was capable of laying down hands when he knew he was beat. I had stole from him 3 times in the last 1.5 hours.
-I had been playing pretty tightly the entirety of the tourney with careful steals here and there and was only called down once where I won w/ top pair aces.

-all of this in mind I went all-in hoping to steal the blind but deciding that he would probably call 30% of the time and fold the other 70%.
-also, I kept in mind that my 22 may hold up and I would double up in the process for a gain of 1800 30% of the time for an expectation of +$540
-And I would steal for a gain of 400 70% of the time for a gain of +$280

all this in mind I was called with 56s and he caught a 5 on the flop to take me out.
-I believe I made the absolute best decision I could have given the info and circumstances and was genuinely shocked that he called with a hand so out of character.

tell me what you think of my analysis.

thank you
-Brent

[pergesu]

Wait..what is your analysis?

You had a small stack. You had a good hand. You pushed. You got called. He sucked out.

That's what we call a bad beat post.

But if you actually have a question about something, you should search the forums for ICM.

It's a pretty standard push--- uncommon call.

I'm not familiar with this "M" ratio thing.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
Wait..what is your analysis?

You had a small stack. You had a good hand. You pushed. You got called. He sucked out.

That's what we call a bad beat post.

But if you actually have a question about something, you should search the forums for ICM.

[/ QUOTE ]

i cannot remember the last time i laughed so hard [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[helpmeout]

Not much else you can do here.

But in the future you should loosen up before you get to this stage.

The analysis isnt really necessary as you have a short stack and cant afford to wait any longer for a big hand.