Running Ice Cold. Is This A Normal Downswing or Has The Plane Crashed?

FakeKramer · #1 09-26-2005, 04:43 PM

About 2 weeks ago I started playing 20 $20 SNGs per day. I truly believe I am a solid player. After 100 SNGs I had an ROI of 15% and honestly thought this could even be a little higher (in other words, I felt a bit on the side of unlucky during my first 100).

Now I am 200 SNGs in and everything has fallen off the charts. My ROI is all the way down to 5%. I'm down 15 buyins over my last 50 tournaments.

I really don't think this is happening because I'm "bad". Cards are just ice cold. I'm not going to say I don't have leaks, because I do, and they are plenty in number, but I really think 15% should be totally sustainable for me at this level.

Anyway, my question is, with these statistics, is it possible that my super long-term ROI truly is 15% and that I'm just going through a bad streak right now, or are there major problems and 5% is a lot more accurate of an ROI for me.

I realize you would need to know a lot more about how I play and how good I am in order to be able to accuratly answer this question, but see if you can't give me a decent reply off of the above knowledge. I basically want to know if I should stick with this thing, or throw in the towel.

RikaKazak · #2 09-26-2005, 04:49 PM

dude, no one can give you a solid answer or even guess, you might be a losing player for all anyone knows and am actually on an upswing. Once you reach 1K's SNG's then hit me up and we can go over your stats.

psyduck · #3 09-26-2005, 04:51 PM

Very easy to be running badly over just 200 SNGs. I think if you've established yourself over a good amount of 10+1s (like 20% over 1K or something) then just play out 1K 20+2s as well and then post about it.

SippinSoma · #4 09-26-2005, 04:54 PM

Don't throw the towel in. Keep playing. Get use to the ups and downs of long-term poker. You'll be fine.

citanul · #5 09-26-2005, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now I am 200 SNGs in

[/ QUOTE ]

got to there and didn't care any more.

no one else did either.

oh, i lied, i actually knew where it was going earlier, and already didn't care.

i think everyone else did the same.

citanul

FakeKramer · #6 09-26-2005, 04:57 PM

You became a moderator treating forum members like this? Skalansky must smoke crack. Or think you give good head. One or the other.

downtown · #7 09-26-2005, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, my question is, with these statistics, is it possible that my super long-term ROI truly is 15% and that I'm just going through a bad streak right now, or are there major problems and 5% is a lot more accurate of an ROI for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

With your sample size, I would guess they are equally probable. Don't be unhappy with a 5% ROI after 200 $22s. Don't be afraid to be critical of your game. I can usually come up with a very good line when I read posts here, but I routinely find hands in my own HH's that I HATE, I don't know what I was thinking and I don't post them because I obviously messed up. Allow yourself room to grow. Perhaps the best way to do this is to think of yourself as a 5% ROI player with room to improve.

I started the month at 20% after 250 33s. Now I'm around 7% after 400. I am guessing my true ROI is somewhere between those two numbers. As far as I'm concerned though I need to work on my game because I'm only doing 7% when I should be much higher.

By thinking of ourselves as 20% ROI players who have temporarily experienced a downswing we are missing opportunities to improve, whether the true cause of the decrease in ROI is in fact related to variance or not.

FakeKramer · #8 09-26-2005, 05:02 PM

Thank you. That was a good reply. They should give you Citanul's mod job.

ClaytonN · #9 09-26-2005, 05:05 PM

Kramer,

Citanul was out of line, but he was more or less hit the nail on the head. People run bad sometimes. You can't control your luck, but you can control your level of play. So fix that. We don't know how good you're playing, so how the hell are we qualified to say your downswing is luck or poor play? 20 buyin downswings are commonplace to higher level players. Just a couple of days ago I had an 8-buyins downswing at the 33's followed by a 5 buyin downswing at the 22's and I'm already back up on the horse.

FakeKramer · #10 09-26-2005, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
20 buyin downswings are commonplace to higher level players. Just a couple of days ago I had an 8-buyins downswing at the 33's followed by a 5 buyin downswing at the 22's and I'm already back up on the horse.

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks Clayton. I was just wanting to hear some stuff like this. I'm pretty new to this whole thing and wasn't sure what I'm going through is a normal occurance or not.