Went to Showdown % vs. Won $ at showdown - better indicator?

teddyFBI · #1 09-21-2005, 06:24 PM

which stats do you all think is a better indicator of an opponent's propensity to call down with inferior hands?

1. Went to shodown % -- this is the one I typically use more...I figure that solid players shouldn't be going to showdown more than 40% of the time when seeing the flop -- but then I started to wonder whether this was also a function of their VPIP...I mean, there's a few 12/9 TAGs who probably go to showdown quite a bit, since they're so incredibly tight preflop that they nearly always have premium hands so maybe are always 39 - 44%...and then there's 22/11 sl-LAG types who know how to get away from a beaten hand and so keep their WTS% around 28 - 33%

2. Won $ at SD -- shouldn't this be a more reliable indicator?? I mean, in essence it's telling you exactly how often the player is calling down with losing hands. I would expect that most winning players are 50+ in this regard.

Or are these two stats simply correlated to a much higher degree than it might first appear...? I mean, it seems only natural that the % of times you go to showdown will have a substantial correlation to the % of times you actually win.

I don't know -- I"ve gone crosseyed.
What do you all make of these 2 stats?

illunious · #2 09-21-2005, 06:56 PM

Just my feelings on both the stats, I have no facts.

I like WtSD, as long as you keep their preflop stats in mind when using it. W$SD has too much weirdness involved due to correct "crying" river calls.

Both the stats are going to take a while to mean anything for normal players, but WtSD can quickly become a good indicator of someone not only playing too loose preflop, but also postflop.

aces_dad · #3 09-22-2005, 02:33 AM

I agree that there is some correlation between the two, as the tighter PF players may have higher relative numbers than average in both catagories. And if you don't have quite a few hands on a player, both stats may be high, if that player has completed more than their share of draws so is thus both getting to showdown and winning them.

If I had to choose just one, I'd favor WTS first, as I believe this converges faster on true 'calling down' nature of player compared to the W$SD, which I think will take longer to converge.