Can you try for a free card here?

[offTopic]

Loose NorCal 3-6 game (this is important because the button has a live $3 charge). UTG with Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] .

I raise, get one or two cold-callers (I think two), the button tosses in 3 chips, and the blinds come along. 11 small bets in the pot. Small blind is pretty loose, big blind is on the tighter side.

Flop: A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

I'm not crazy about this flop (understandably) and am even less enthused when the small blind bets, and the big blind calls.

I've got a tight image, and it's very possible (I can't quite say "likely") that if I raise here to represent a big ace, I'll get the button and at least a free turn card.

What I think I know:

- The latter two of the three people to act after me could have an ace if they cold call. The first one, two to my left would likely re-raise if he has an ace, and will cold call with a draw.
- If the small blind has an ace, he will probably not lay down, ever.
- If the big blind has a weak ace, he is capable of laying it down.
- If my raise is successful in getting the button, the blinds may very well check to the raiser, and I'll get the river card for free as well.

I don't want to discount the possibility that I'm still good here, but it seems unlikely...however, does that justify a fold in this case? This is a situation that comes up pretty frequently (pair vs. one overcard on the board) but in the case where the overcard is an ace, it's almost a certainty that at least one of the blinds has one.

What do you all think?

[Homer]

I'm guessing that the SB is on a draw (either flush or straight). The BB just called, which wouldn't make sense to do with an Ace. I'm going to guess that he is on a draw also. Who knows what the players behind you have; one of them could easily have an Ace. I wouldn't fault you for folding or calling, but I think that raising won't accomplish much. A fold could be justified because to win you will have to hope that:

1) The blinds are on draws
2) The players behind you don't have an Ace and will fold to your raise
3) None of the draws get there

This seems like a difficult trifecta to pull off.

You could also just call and see what the players behind you do. If they are straightforward players and one of them raises then you can call and fold if you don't improve on the turn. If they call then they probably don't have an Ace. If a blank comes on the turn you could then raise if the SB bets again. This way you would probably get a free showdown and would charge the draws the maximum.

As I said, though, this hand could get ugly real fast so I wouldn't blame you for folding on the flop.

-- Homer