Is this a push? So many leaks... 109

[Chaostracize]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t1520)
MP (t700)
Button (t3150)
SB (t2555)
BB (t2075)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Hero...?

[deathpotato]

My instict is fold

[z32fanatic]

I would push mainly because the guy in 3rd is in the BB and will fold some better hands because it is almost his whole stack. It's not a clear push but I lean that way.

[inyaface]

meh I ususally fold this....CO I might poosh

[curtains]

Clear fold. You are a bit too push happy around the bubble judging from the content of your posts.

EDIT - I shouldnt say clear fold. Chip wise its +ev to push, however I suspect that due to bubble considerations it will turn out to be -ev cashwise. I've run situations like this and it almost always comes out as -ev, but I should run it again just to make sure.

[curtains]

Jesus crap Im so rusty, it is a clear push. Forgive me I havent played in a while, Im a bit off on the math. At least I quickly recognized that I might have made a clear mistake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[deathpotato]

Well by golly you're right, I think I'm making the mistake a lot of the time of assuming people will call more stupidly than they will in general. To contribute a little, I think even at a loose table this is probably actually only marginal at worst, and the fact that you're about to go into the blinds makes it a push. But against tightish callers this is indeed a clear push; I feel silly for not checking out the ICM after my first post! I wonder if I would have folded this in an actual game - I'd better pay attention to these situations at any rate.

edit - VV I think A8 is a push into good players, too. Marginal if they're calling right, but the blinds make it good in the end.

I push this, this is the minimum though, A7 I fold and probably A8 as well. If there was 6 players I also fold.

I must say I was surprised to read curtains first comment, thought he was weak-tight for a moment there. Just kidding hehe. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Paragon]

I'll go against the grain and say fold without running any numbers really. I have only my intuition in making this decision, and making this fold I might be subconsciously choosing to go for 3rd. Not sure why I post this when I can't explain my opinion well, but...

It "feels" like a peculiar situation because your stack is still fine compared to the blinds. Pushing UTG will get folds the large majority of the time, to the point where ANY time you're called you'll be dominated and out of the tourney most likely (I can't imagine being called with KQs/88 unless it's the shortstack).

I'd push if: you had any pair, AJ+, KQ, less chips, or if blinds are going up next hand. Anyway, this might be a leak of mine - good hand to post imo.

Edit: What calling ranges are you guys using for ICM? And if it is a push simply because people fold so often, should we be doing this with lots of other hands less likely to be dominated like suited broadway? I guess that is what doesn't "feel" right to me with this many chips left still.

[Chaostracize]

Forgiven. I appreciate your posts.