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#1
09-15-2005, 03:59 AM
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trips to full houses
Scenario. I flop trips, or improve to trips by the river, what is the probability of some other player having a full house? Conditions: 9 player game with no pre- flop raising, even with AA. 
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#3
09-15-2005, 09:07 PM
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Re: trips to full houses
[ QUOTE ]
Do you have a pocket pair? [/ QUOTE ] no. quick note: Trips and Set have specific definitions. Trips: one card in your hand and two on the board. Set: Two cards in your hand and one on the board. I figure you already know this, and are just checking, no insult intended here. I am implying, however, that my opponent has a pocket pair.
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#4
09-15-2005, 09:21 PM
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Re: trips to full houses
what is it when u have a 55 in your hand and 55 is on the flop.. trips right
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#6
09-16-2005, 12:51 AM
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Re: trips to full houses
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Do you have a pocket pair? [/ QUOTE ] no. ... I am implying, however, that my opponent has a pocket pair. [/ QUOTE ] Why? What if you have 23 and your opponent has 34 on a board of 3347J edit: by my count, there are 9 ways your opponent could have 3x for a boat, and 9 ways (s)he could have a pocket pair for a boat, so there are 18 possible hands he could hold. Since you are looking at 7 of the 52 cards in the deck (your hand and the board), there are only 45 cards left to deal your opponent's hand with => 990 possible hands he could have. 18/990 = 2/110, or about 0.0181818 or 1.8% So, IF YOU ARE HEADS UP, the probability that your opponent has a full house when you have trips is 1.8% The probability one of 9 players have it can be approximated by 1-(972/990)^9, which is approximately 0.152 or 15.2% However, this over counts times when 2 or more opponents have boats, so you'd want to use inclusion-exclusion to get an exact answer. If I had to guess, though, I'd say around 14% if you assume that everyone goes to show down. A computer simulation would give a much better approximation, but I'm not feelin' it tonight. Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#7
09-16-2005, 02:33 AM
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Re: trips to full houses
[ QUOTE ]
Scenario. I flop trips, or improve to trips by the river, what is the probability of some other player having a full house? Conditions: 9 player game with no pre- flop raising, even with AA. [/ QUOTE ] Pretty good if he is loose/passive and capped.
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