Overplayed?

[pudley4]

Super-loose 2/4 at Canterbury. Normally 6+ players to see the flop. Relatively passive - only 1 or 2 preflop raises per round. Some raising post-flop, but very little reraising or check-raising. The table is 10-handed (normally only 9) due to the 3rd anniversary promotion going on. I sat down 2 rounds ago and have won 2 hands without a showdown.

5 limpers to me in CO with A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . Thoughts of Sklansky's "Hold'Em Errors" post run through my head as I raise. Button calls, SB folds, BB and all limpers call. 8 to the flop for 16 sb.

Flop: T [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]

It's checked around to you. What's your plan for the rest of the hand?



What I think I should have done is check. The pot is so large that anyone with any piece of the flop can call my bet. It's unlikely to be raised, so they'll be getting anywhere from 17-1 to 23-1 on their call. I think I should check, then hope someone in a late position bets the turn so I can raise (regardless of what the card is), trying to knock out players and get a free showdown if I'm behind.

I think I took a very sub-optimal line - I bet. 5 callers. 6 to the turn for 22 sb.

Turn: 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, 3 callers, and now the player to my right (who seems to be a little more sane than the rest of the table) raises.

Now what do you do?

[pudley4]

If he's good or aggressive he could have anything from QJ or 78, to a pair + flush draw, to 2 pair, or even a set. I figured his most likely hand is 2 pair and I'm calling him on the river regardless of what card comes, so I raised, looking to knock out the other players and get the free showdown. It worked - only 1 player called the 2 bets and the player on my right just called.

River: blank

It's checked through.

He shows 99 for the winner [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img]

[Tommy The Tuna]

I would call to see the river. Likely he is sitting on an open ended straight draw or perhaps the nut flush and is trying to increase his pot odds. If he hits on the river I would lay it down. If not, you still have top pair with A kicker. It is possible he could be sitting on pocket 9's, but would he have called down the post flop action with only having 2 outs to get over your 10's? I doubt it.

[Bob T.]

I bet the flop. If it is checked to me, I bet the turn. If it is checked to me, I bet the river.

On the flop, do you really want Kx, Qx, Jx, to have a free draw at you. Bet the flop, you need to get those hands to fold.

Call the turn raise if he has T9, or some other two pair, you are getting at least 17 to 1 to call. you would call if an ace was your only out. The pot is huge, you may as well call a river bet also.

[Vehn]

I've done the "Mason Manuveur" as I've dubbed it exactly twice as I can remember, and both were with overpairs in a capped preflop pot and I was very very sure where the bet was coming from on the turn. Don't think I'd do it here.

As far as the turn goes its an easy easy fold here IMO. You are deader than a doornail despite the size of the pot. If you had JJ/QQ here it would be fine but "just" TPTK is screwed with very questionable outs.

Bonus: me doing the M.M. last year [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]

Game #220,514,834 - $2.00/$4.00 Hold'em - 2002/09/03-21:40:11 (CST)
Table "Cayo Coco" (real money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: robmundt ($43.00 in chips)
Seat 2: holstein ($84.00 in chips)
Seat 3: V00D00 ($71.00 in chips)
Seat 4: davidross ($79.00 in chips)
Seat 5: CrazyMike ($91.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Big Tuna ($86.75 in chips)
Seat 7: vehn_ ($103.00 in chips)
Seat 8: angelfish ($11.50 in chips) (button)
Seat 9: SantosHalper ($98.00 in chips) (sb)
Seat 10: pOrnStahR ($106.00 in chips) (bb)
SantosHalper : Post Small Blind ($1.00)
pOrnStahR : Post Big Blind ($2.00)
Dealt to vehn_ [ Ac ]
Dealt to vehn_ [ Ad ]
robmundt : Call ($2.00)
holstein : Fold
V00D00 : Call ($2.00)
davidross : Fold
CrazyMike : Call ($2.00)
Big Tuna : Raise ($4.00)
vehn_ : Raise ($6.00)
angelfish : Fold (button)
SantosHalper : Fold (sb)
pOrnStahR : Call ($4.00) (bb)
robmundt : Call ($4.00)
V00D00 : Call ($4.00)
CrazyMike : Call ($4.00)
Big Tuna : Raise ($4.00)
vehn_ : Call ($2.00)
pOrnStahR : Call ($2.00) (bb)
robmundt : Call ($2.00)
V00D00 : Call ($2.00)
CrazyMike : Call ($2.00)
*** FLOP *** : [ 4s 6d 7d ]
pOrnStahR : Check (bb)
robmundt : Check
V00D00 : Check
CrazyMike : Check
Big Tuna : Bet ($2.00)
vehn_ : Call ($2.00)
pOrnStahR : Call ($2.00) (bb)
robmundt : Call ($2.00)
V00D00 : Call ($2.00)
CrazyMike : Call ($2.00)
*** TURN *** : [ 4s 6d 7d ] [ Js ]
pOrnStahR : Check (bb)
robmundt : Check
V00D00 : Check
CrazyMike : Check
Big Tuna : Bet ($4.00)
vehn_ : Raise ($8.00)
pOrnStahR : Fold (bb)
robmundt : Call ($8.00)
V00D00 : Call ($8.00)
CrazyMike : Call ($8.00)
Big Tuna : Call ($4.00)
*** RIVER *** : [ 4s 6d 7d Js ] [ 2c ]
robmundt : Check
V00D00 : Check
CrazyMike : Check
Big Tuna : Check
vehn_ : Bet ($4.00)
robmundt : Call ($4.00)
V00D00 : Fold
CrazyMike : Fold
Big Tuna : Call ($4.00)
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $110.00 | Rake: $3.00
Board: [ 4s 6d 7d Js 2c ]
robmundt lost $22.00 [ Ah Jd ] (pair)
holstein didn't bet (folded)
V00D00 lost $18.00 (folded)
davidross didn't bet (folded)
CrazyMike lost $18.00 (folded)
Big Tuna lost $22.00 [ Ks Kc ] (pair)
vehn_ bet $22.00, collected $110.00, net +$88.00 [ Ac Ad ] (pair)
angelfish didn't bet (folded)
SantosHalper lost $1.00 (folded)
pOrnStahR lost $10.00 (folded)

As you can see it didn't work out so well.. kinda.. [img]/forums/images/icons/smirk.gif[/img]