($215)- archived [wchen] hand A J

[Oluwafemi]

***** Hand History for Game 1340756354 *****
30/60 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 8115551) - Thu Dec 23 23:40:21 EST 2004
Table Table 14451 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: lalalaarry (975)
Seat 2: PaulMokeski (810)
Seat 3: ZJustin (1045)
Seat 4: scooberyo (840)
Seat 5: ophthalmodel (1125)
Seat 6: rushchair (1100)
Seat 7: wchen (925)
Seat 9: BrewTdog (1955)
Seat 10: ComeOnKid (1225)
wchen posts small blind (15)
BrewTdog posts big blind (30)
** Dealing down cards **
ComeOnKid folds.
lalalaarry folds.
PaulMokeski folds.
ZJustin folds.
scooberyo folds.
ophthalmodel raises (125) to 125
rushchair folds.
wchen raises (910) to 925
wchen is all-In.
BrewTdog folds.
ophthalmodel calls (800)
Creating Main Pot with $1880 with wchen
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8h, Kc, Td ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 3h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1880 |
Board: [ 8h Kc Td 9c 3h ]
lalalaarry balance 975, didn't bet (folded)
PaulMokeski balance 810, didn't bet (folded)
ZJustin balance 1045, didn't bet (folded)
scooberyo balance 840, didn't bet (folded)
ophthalmodel balance 2080, bet 925, collected 1880, net +955 [ Kh Ad ] [ a pair of kings -- Ad,Kh,Kc,Td,9c ]
rushchair balance 1100, didn't bet (folded)
wchen balance 0, lost 925 [ Ah Jh ] [ high card ace -- Ah,Kc,Jh,Td,9c ]
BrewTdog balance 1925, lost 30 (folded)
ComeOnKid balance 1225, didn't bet (folded)

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Well, in retrospect it was probably a bit too aggressive. As Justin knows, I was in two $1K's SNG's and trying to gauge the games there, since these are new tournies. Maybe I bit off more than I could chew by playing these many games at once,

There are a couple of points with the hand. The $125 is cutoff raise by an aggressive player. If I am going to raise, I don't really think I can make it an intermediate amount between $125 and all-in, hence if I am raising it is going to be all-in. I wuld rather raise than call because I don't want the BB to make a cheap call.

So I think the decision is between jamming and folding. Let's quantitatively compare the two options.

Folding: I simply lose 15.

Jamming: (A) if he folds I win 155.
(B) If he calls I win 955 or lose 925. If he has AK I am close to 28%, but it could be a better situation, like I could be against TT. Let's say I win 1/3 of the time on average when he calls. My equity is about 625 of the 925 (we are counting the whole 925 because we are saying folding is -15) I put in for an expected net of -300.

So the question is how often he has to fold to make my play profitable. LEt f be his chance of folding.

155*f - 300*(1-f) > -15. That is saying my equity for jamming is higher.

so 455f > 285 so f > 62.5 or so.

It's actually has to be a little better than this for two reasons--first the BB could simply wake up with a big hand and pick me off. Secondly, there is some non-linearity in chips but this effect is mostly offset by the time value of being able to play more tournies.

So is he going to fold 2/3 of the time or so? Maybe, if his range of hands is too wide, but in truth it was probably a small mistake.

I knew it was close when I made the play. My goal in these single tables is not to try to make each play perfectly but to try to play many of these at once proficiently. If I am going to make an error, like most players I will err on the aggressive side. Hope this helps.

Bill

then later,

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i deliberately left out calling since the analysis is much harder. You have to take into account the BB possibly overcalling and how you are going to play the flop. I certainly don't see it as "certainly +ev." In fact I see it as almost definitely -ev, though maybe less -ev than jamming or folding.

Say you call for 110. What is your plan postflop? 2/3 of the times you are going to miss. Your can have one of two plans. Play aggressively only when you hit (by check-raising or betting) and play agressively always, or some mixture of the two plans.

In terms of getting paid off when you hit, with AJ it is hard to see how it's going to happen unless you hit 2 pair or better. If you hit an A, it's hard to imagine a hand less than top pair putting their chips in. If you are playing your opponent for Ax in his distribution then we go back to jamming being the best play.

But let's say you call, the BB folds and essentially win the pot when an Ace or Jack hits (+155) and essentially lose the pot when one doesn't hit (-110). That's still -20 for the play , which is worse than folding -15.

As I said before I think the scenario above is optimistic for you. While you might be able to get paid off for more when you hit, you might also be the one paying off to AK/AQ when an A hits or to a higher pair if a J hits. While you may be able to bet/raise and take the pot when you miss, you might also get called and lose more. I mean you don't want to jam preflop because you might be dominated, but being dominated is also the worst situation for playing AJ postflop....

Bill

comments on his thinking and analysis. i want to also add that David Sklansky ranked Bill Chen #1 as part of his Top 10 Smartest Poker Players list.

[Apathy]

He acknowledges a small mistake on his part but in reality the mistake was much greater.

IMO:

He OVERestimates his pot equity when he is called.

He OVERestimates his opponents opening range (this one is not so clear but it is my experience that a typical range at this buyin and for that position and raise size calls more then 66%)

He mentions decreasing value of chips but dismisses it by suggesting that improved hourly rate makes up for the difference which is a bit of a cop out agrument. The fact that you doubling up does not really come close to doubing your equity in the tournament coupled with the fact that you are broke if you lose this hand is a key and overlooked point by chen.


This hand is a fold by a mile and a bigger mistake then he is argueing it is.

[tigerite]

I definitely agree, this is a fold - at 15/30 blinds. Now, with higher blinds, maybe 25/50, certainly 50/100, it wouldn't be so bad, depending on the situation and read on the player. That's another key thing here for me, no way he can have a read good enough to know his range at level 2.

[Daliman]

BIll is a brilliant mind, and calculates things I have no clue about, but he isn't that great a SNG player. Risking 925 to get however many chips he thinks is his EV is just bad. AT ain't calling here. Just goes to show you SNG's ain't all math.

The decreasing value of chips is WAY more significant than you're acknowledging.

[Oluwafemi]

anybody in favor of calling?

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
anybody in favor of calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has more FE postflop

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anybody in favor of calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has more FE postflop

[/ QUOTE ]

It MIGHT be less of a losing play to smooth call depending on how you wanted to play it post flop.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
anybody in favor of calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of position vs a know aggressive, tricky player?

Not with AJ.

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anybody in favor of calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has more FE postflop

[/ QUOTE ]

It MIGHT be less of a losing play to smooth call depending on how you wanted to play it post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

part of his argument is that he did'nt want the BB to be able to call cheaply.