Variance an I

Good eve all,

First and foremost thank you for all your input and advice on my previous post “concerning Variance”. I have taken a great interest in the swings associated with poker and the impact they have on ones mental prowess at the table.

I have made a decision to post a weekly Variance update and encourage the highs and lows to be posted (by U) also so that new comers and old timers can be reminded of the good times and remember what we do to minimize the cold streaks.

Background on my self; I have a full time job and choose to play online to assist me in paying off my house(live the American dream) I play on average 22.5 hours a week. I have a goal of $1500 per month in net income. I have a 1000+BB bankroll for the 2/4 and 3/6 game I play. I Multi table and play with bonus and rake back. My style is TA, with an error on the conservative side of starting hands. I have been a small wining player .5-.9BB/100 most of this year and most of my income is rake back .5BB/100 and bonus 2.0BB/100.

Again the goal of this post is to use the Variance chart to analyze and reduce the spikes in my own play to increase my overall win rate. I hope to learn to make an additional BB/100 thru accountability and focus.

I welcome all feedback, both, positive and negative and hope your game will improve as a result.

[Uglyowl]

Wow, that is quite the swing over the course of 1,000 hands both good and bad, especially the good run you went on.

Obviously RB and bonus are not included, I have included them on my excel spreadsheet, I will have to post it soon. I play a few different levels and have a few decent tourney wins. Just have to figure out how to post it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[x2ski]

Here's a nice little 46,000 hand break-even stretch I got going for mayself right now. Uh-huh... a nice little break-even stretch I've got going there.

At least I didn't lose today [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Thank you for the post Mr. OWl,

I can't wait to see the form you use, I use a spread sheet for the cash management end of things

Thank you for your post Mr. Ski <font color="blue"> </font>

How would you describe your playing style, are you a limit player or nl?? Obviously you do this FT and are making a living, I wish you all the best!

Your chart is a visual testament to the importance of rake bake and bonuses that make the true cash flow each and every month possible for us players (talking about me specifically) that are break even or a little better.

In my time playing I am truly pondering the validity of any person that says they are making 3+BB/100 over the long haul in a limit game. I am sure this is possible but the percentage of individuals achieving this in my opinion is .02% of the poker players. It is my understanding that only 4 out of 10 players are break even or better and there needs to be some realistic grounding for the up and coming next generation of player, you know the kids in high school that skip and play cash games on there parents house.

[x2ski]

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Thank you for your post Mr. Ski <font color="blue"> </font>

How would you describe your playing style, are you a limit player or nl??

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Limit ($3/$6).

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Obviously you do this FT and are making a living, I wish you all the best!

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You are correct and thanks for your support.

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Your chart is a visual testament to the importance of rake bake and bonuses that make the true cash flow each and every month possible for us players (talking about me specifically) that are break even or a little better.

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I guess... but your ultimate goal should not be to rely on bonuses and rakeback each month. I've never had a losing month... In fact, every month I have earned almost exactly what I have put into it (between 40k and 65k hands [80k this month]), given my winrate.

For the past year I thought I played enough hands each month to overcome variance, but his month seems like it might be a challenge. Perfect timing, since quarterly estimated taxes are due next Thursday [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I guess after playing 500,000+ hands of poker in my lifetime, a blip like this was sure to show up on the radar. Oh well, may as well crank out hands and, as bugstud says, "Print money". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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In my time playing I am truly pondering the validity of any person that says they are making 3+BB/100 over the long haul in a limit game.

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Yeah, I don't get it either. I can go 25,000 hands at 3+BB/100, but it evens out after that. It usually happens after rough downswings.

[x2ski]

FWIW, here's what my graph looks like after 329,000 hands, so that's kinda nice (although the winrate is despicable by 2+2 standards).

sweet avatar btw-easily one of the best Curb Your Enthusiasm episodes

[TimM]

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In my time playing I am truly pondering the validity of any person that says they are making 3+BB/100 over the long haul in a limit game.

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Yeah, I don't get it either. I can go 25,000 hands at 3+BB/100, but it evens out after that. It usually happens after rough downswings.

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I was starting to think that too. Maybe I'm just running good, but these last couple of months are changing my mind. Now I think the difference between a 1BB/100 and 2.5BB/100 is very small. Just one more good fold on the turn every 100 hands, for example, could make up the difference right there.

Tim, I think you just struck gold!!(in my game)