When Chance Doesn't matter- a poll Inspired by Star Trek (no, really)

[xniNja]

Alright, so I was waiting for a juicy game to open up and I turn on the T.V. to Star Trek: TNG. Now, I'll admit I'm not a huge fan so I don't know the episode number or virtually anything about what happened - but, of relevance, ...

LaForge's mother's ship is missing- Starfleet considers it a loss, Data says it's possible, but the chances are nearly impossible (about 1 in a million or less) that the ship is caught in some space distortion (which LaForge suspects based on his interface with a probe, and "anomalous emissions" that he could have perceived as his mother).

Picard won't let LaForge go back because it's hazardous to his health, he could die, the Enterprise could blow, but LaForge wants to take the 1 in a million shot anyway, because it's his mother.

Now, let's assume this isn't Star Trek and 1 in a million shots don't happen 3 times an episode.

Given the same scenario, if you had a 1 in a million shot at "saving" (they could already be dead, or irretrievable) a loved one, would you take it, under the same risks in the example? (serious injury, death, bankruptcy)

[lastchance]

I doubt any of us know what would happen until we have lost a loved one.

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, so I was waiting for a juicy game to open up and I turn on the T.V. to Star Trek: TNG. Now, I'll admit I'm not a huge fan so I don't know the episode number or virtually anything about what happened - but, of relevance, ...

LaForge's mother's ship is missing- Starfleet considers it a loss, Data says it's possible, but the chances are nearly impossible (about 1 in a million or less) that the ship is caught in some space distortion (which LaForge suspects based on his interface with a probe, and "anomalous emissions" that he could have perceived as his mother).

Picard won't let LaForge go back because it's hazardous to his health, he could die, the Enterprise could blow, but LaForge wants to take the 1 in a million shot anyway, because it's his mother.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not a Star Trek fan but out of all of them I hate TNG the most, virtually every episode is some variation of the above plus or minus a couple of small details.

Star Trek: Deep Space Nine IMHO was a much better show because of it's political aspect, yet maybe I'm just a physics noob which is why I found all the TNG 'anomolies' bland.

To answer the question, yes I would, because living with the guilt is too great.

[AleoMagus]

True Story

I am 24 yrs old and at my naval officers acceptance board in the final stages of being accepted into a career as a Naval Officer. I am in a room with 5 senior officers, who are asking me hypothetical questions and asking me to describe my life experiences of relevance. Basically, a very gruelling job interview.

I am asked the following question

You are the officer of the watch aboard a warship in extremely heavy seas and poor visiblility. A man goes over the side. You must decide whether or not to send a four man rescue team, which you cannot be sure will survive the attempt. It could go either way.

I am well versed in decision theory at the time and the answer seems easy to me

I say "Sir, my decision would rest on my evaluation, as best as I could make it, of the specific likelihood of the rescue team surviving. After all, I am weighing one life against 4 more lives, and if I thought there to be any more than about a 20% chance that the rescue team would die, I could not send them"

They start loking at each other and writing things down. They are obviously unsatisfied with my answer and don't leave it. I am asked if any other factors would come into play that would affect my decision

I realize my blunder and respond "Sir, I suppose the only factors that would matter would be crew morale at not attempting a rescue, and possibly the future importance of the man in the water. If it was someone the ship depended on for some future survival, then it may make sense to risk saving him"

A navy captain who is chairing the board says "So what if it was just an ordinary boatswain and you though the odds were 50-50 that the rescue team would make it?"

I say "I could not send them"

They stare at me blankly for a moment then write a few more things down.

I am troubled by their reaction and later discuss this with all of the 43 other applicants who are at the board and discover that I am amazingly the ONLY applicant who said he would not send the rescue team

I am sure that I will be refused, but the Navy is on a recruiting drive, and they take 41 of the 43 applicants, including myself.

When they give me the good news, however, they tell me that they were troubled by my response and that I required a lot of consideration and was only accepted marginally. Saving men who have gone over the side, they tell me, is what the rescue team is there for.

Regards
Brad S

[BluffTHIS!]

They basically want to call on a draw with bad pot odds, although they will no doubt reprimand you if you fail to suck out.

[lastchance]

Another factor, obviously, besides the importance of the man, is the morale of the crew if you decide not to send him.

I'm guessing, it's very important to know that people will look for you to be rescued if you are in trouble.

Still, I have to think, in a spot where you really don't think that the rescue team (>50 or 60%) that a particular member is coming back, I really doubt I could send the rescue team on that mission.

[xniNja]

I like your story, but I think it's a slightly different scenario. I think I can buy the Navy's point; if the job of the rescue team is to rescue men overboard, then when a man goes overboard- so should the rescue team.

Also 50-50 are much better odds than 1 in a million and it's their 'responsibility,' while it's not necessarily in the first case.

[tek]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sure that I will be refused, but the Navy is on a recruiting drive, and they take 41 of the 43 applicants, including myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF did the other 2 say to get rejected?