Fold the turn? Wrong thinking on the river?

[Mr. Curious]

Live $100-200 2-5 NL Game
8 Handed

Villian is LAG (plays 7 out of every 8 hands), and is borderline maniac. He raises any pair, any ace, and any big suited connector from any position.

Stacks:
Villian..$900
Hero.....$750

Hero is in the SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villian is the BB

Preflop: UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, Hero completes, BB (Villian) checks.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Pot: $20

Hero bets $20, Villian calls, MP1 calls, CO folds.

Hero did not try for a check raise because on this type of flop, the table had been checking it through.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] (3 players)
Pot: $80

Hero bets $60, Villian raises to $120, MP1 thinks for a bit and folds, Hero calls.

At this point, Hero is 95% sure that Villian turned a straight. This is exactly how he played his hand the last time he caught a straight and drawing to gutshots is his forte. Given his propensity for raising, there is no way he has a set and he would have raised the flop if he held a Q.

Hero is calling $60 for $260. Not good odds to draw to 4 outs unless he can stack on the river.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] (2 players)
Pot: $320

Hero pushes all-in...

The reason I pushed the river was that I felt that the 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] was enough of a scare card for Villian that he would check it through (he'd done that in the past). A value bet would be called and I assigned them these percentages:

$100....100% of the time
$200....50% of the time
$300....25% of the time
All In...25% of the time

It seemed like going all in would net me the most, most of the time. Had the 3 not been a spade, I would have gone for a check raise all in, and I thought the spade would preclude him from coming over the top on any bet I made.

btw - I play with a few of the people quite regularly and my river play was also designed to set them up for future situations.

[MINETZ]

the villan seems very agressive, id check raise allin here, he doesnt know how strong you are and prolly doenst put u on a running flush. If u were 100 percent sure of these percentages then u just mutiply the percentage called by the amt called to calculate the EV, 100 *1= 100, 200*.5 = 100, etc.. but your obviously not 100 percent sure.

[TheRegulat0r]

When you make the $100 bet, does he ever consider it a blocking bet with a hand you can get away from? If he comes over the top even 10% of the time, thats .10(500) or $50. Making the EV of that bet $150, which is equal to the EV of the push (.25)(600).

Anyways, I think you played it well.

[Mr. Curious]

[ QUOTE ]
When you make the $100 bet, does he ever consider it a blocking bet with a hand you can get away from? If he comes over the top even 10% of the time, thats .10(500) or $50. Making the EV of that bet $150, which is equal to the EV of the push (.25)(600).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I bet, he will only call or fold. I doubt that he knows what a blocking bet is.

[Mr. Curious]

<Bump>

[NYCNative]

If you get villain to fold a better hand with this bluff based on your read, then it was a great play. Did he?

[Mr. Curious]

[ QUOTE ]
If you get villain to fold a better hand with this bluff based on your read, then it was a great play. Did he?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only way Villian had a better hand was if he searched through the deck and pulled out the two missing queens, jacks, or tens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]