K high HU vs aggressive players flop c/r

1800GAMBLER · #1 09-08-2005, 11:44 AM

Villian is 37/18. He's c/r'ed me a few times and i've just given up. Totally lost in this one, i'll let everyone else have their say then go from there.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

mmcd · #2 09-08-2005, 06:26 PM

The presence of the gutshot wheel draw on the flop would dissuade from looking him up with K-high here. What was his AF? I'd rather 3-bet him on the flop or raise the turn (although the 4 pairing here opens you up to a bluff 3-bet) if his AF was either too high or too low.

Also, against some players like this I'm not completely averse to checking behind on a ragged flop and getting to showdown cheaply in this spot.

rmarotti · #3 09-08-2005, 07:27 PM

Villain has to be bluffing close to half the time if hero checks the flop and proceeds to call down.

I suck at math, but i think that's right.

1800GAMBLER · #4 09-08-2005, 07:52 PM

After his c/r the pot is just short of 4bbs, i have to pay 2.5 to call down, so i need to either improve to the best hand or be winning AND not get outdrawn 1/2.6 or roughly 40% of the time. I'll improve to the best hand, say 5 outs, 1/8, 12%, so he needs to beb bluffing 28% of the time, say 1/3.

rmarotti · #5 09-08-2005, 08:00 PM

I was referring to mm's plan of checking the flop then calling down.

1800GAMBLER · #6 09-08-2005, 08:03 PM

I def effed this up. While i think he is bluffing enough i need to remove him from the hands that are bluffing yet still beat me, Axs A5o

It seemed his flop bluffing range was anything from 56 67 to Axs, a5o, any flush draw, and a very possible chance of a random overcard bluff like TJ.

Given that hands with 4s and 3s are in slim numbers it's A3 A4 98s 9ts a9 low pockets vs bluffs, i think i can def call down if i could beat a ace high bluff here, not being able to beat that means i'm going to have to invest 3.5 thanks to the river raise. That changes my success rate needed but i don't think it matters that much because of the big increase in made hands that may fold thanks to the ten. I still think calling down has value but if i'm not raising the river then i should probably fold it since that ten completed a lot of other things.

I def think i should be going to showdown here but i should def raise the river. Turns out he had A7s and i got the 'lol' in the chat box later, that everyone does when they think they were bluffing but ended up value betting.

tongni · #7 09-08-2005, 08:11 PM

Raise the turn, if you improve bet again. Raising the river is results oriented thinking.

mmcd · #8 09-08-2005, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has to be bluffing close to half the time if hero checks the flop and proceeds to call down.

I suck at math, but i think that's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

On a 9443 board, KQ has well over 50% equity against his range. It's just a matter of how often he fires twice after you check behind on the flop. I think a guy with his numbers will do that a lot.

1800GAMBLER · #9 09-08-2005, 08:16 PM

I think raising the turn and checking the river is stupid.

tongni · #10 09-08-2005, 08:41 PM

Raising the turn and betting the river is much better than raising the river, because at least you will have some equity on the money going into the turn, and if he decides to check the river then you lost value against his draw.