On Bluffing: Various Hypotheses

[x2ski]

<font color="red">Disclaimer:</font> The following essay is composed of random thoughts on bluffing put together by me, a 1BB/100 winner after 400,000+ hands of small-stakes limit hold’em. I have yet to incorporate any of the strategies outlined below, and am merely presenting them to the Small-Stakes community of the 2+2 Forums for your counsel. I may be an idiot for believing any of the following strategies would work… I also might be an idiot for not having incorporated them already. Use at your own risk.


On Bluffing: Various Hypotheses by x2ski

I semi-bluff at what I believe to be the appropriate times, and I raise for a free card at what I believe to be the appropriate times. You’ll find no stone-cold bluffing from me, no sir. This is because I suck; however, I wish to improve, and feel my failure to make pure bluffs (at the appropriate times) is a leak. I guess we shall see.

In the following examples, assume a typical 10-handed small-stakes game, and that either role of “villain” has stats of 16/9/2 after one million hands:

Example #1

Villain is UTG+2 and open-raises. It is folded to you in the CO and you cold-call with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Everyone else folds (including the blinds).

Flop is 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets, you raise, villain calls.

Turn is 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, you bet.

Questions:

1. If you were villain and held T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

2. If you were villain and held K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

3. If you were villain and held K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

4. If you were villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?


Example #2(a)

Villain is CO and open-raises. It is folded to you in the BB and you call with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Flop is 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

You check, villain bets, you raise.

Questions:

1. If you were villain and held 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

2. If you were villain and help A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

3. If you were villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

4. If you were villain and held 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?


Example #2(b)

Villain is CO and open-raises. It is folded to you in the BB and you call with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Flop is 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

You check, villain bets, you raise, villain calls.

Turn is 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

You bet.

Questions:

1. If you were villain and held 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

2. If you were villain and help A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

3. If you were villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

4. If you were villain and held 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?


Example #3

Villain is MP1 and open-raises. 3 cold-callers to you on the Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so you call as well. Blinds fold.

Flop is 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain bets, 3 folds, you raise, villain calls.

Turn is J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, you bet.

Questions:

1. If you were villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

2. If you were villain and held T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], how would react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

3. If you were villain and held K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

4. If you were villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?


Example #4

Villain is MP1 and open-raises. Folded to you in the SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and you call. BB folds.

Flop is 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

You check, villain bets, you raise, villain calls.

Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

You bet.

Questions:

1. If you are villain and held Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

2. If you are villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

3. If you were villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

4. If you were villain and held 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?


Example #5

Villain open-raises from the Button, SB folds, and you call from the BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop is 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

You check, villain bets, you raise, villain calls.

Turn is 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You bet.

Questions:

1. If you are villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

2. If you were villain and held Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

3. If you were villain and held A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?

4. If you were villain and held 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], how would you react to “Hero’s” play on each street?


In theory, these bluffs should give us a general idea of what villain thinks of his hand. If 3-bet on the flop in any of the above examples, it would dictate an immediate fold or a turn check-fold. If raised or check-raised on the turn, it would dictate an immediate fold.

I feel as though the examples above happen against me on a regular basis, and as a result I’m looking for ways to combat these scenarios. Perhaps it’s all in my head, but I would appreciate your opinions on this matter.

I’ve read countless times to “get out of the way” of solid players, but I would much rather “run them over”.

Thoughts?

[davet]

Some problems with this post. 1- I would re- raise with KQs.

Who would you try to bluff against? Would your villian EVER fold an ace PF? Isn't it odd that you are exibiting high- card strength on the later streets?

The only time a stone- cold bluff ever works is against a rock. But bluffing against a PF raiser will be useless more often than not, because of that pesky little rule: "you have to see it to the river if you raise PF" --- a broke donk.

Bluffing and semi- bluffing is very situational in low stakes games. A bit more thinking on value betting and exploiting mistakes is far better for your EV.

"Never try to catch a rock."

[Piiop]

Example 1: I don't like the preflop cold-call with any of these hands. With TT and KK I 3bet, and I would fold the others - definitely AJo. I like the raises with TT and KQs, but not with KK or AJo. WIth TT and KQs, you're wanting him to fold a better hand which can be accomplished with a raise and follow thru bet. With KK and AJo, it's WA/WB so him folding his WBs is bad for you if he would've continued betting.

Example 2a&amp;b: With 99 and AQ, I would 3bet preflop everytime. With A6s and 55 I would sometimes 3bet and sometimes just call, calling with QJo is fine. The flop check-raise is good for every hand. With QJo I wouldn't do it every time, but definitely would sometimes. After check-raising the flop, I would bet the turn with every one every time.

Example 3: Perfect with 88, TT, and A7s. I'd 3bet AKs preflop and sometimes TT. The KJs I don't like. With the other hands, you'll have the best hand a good portion of the time, but you won't with KJs. I'd rather just see the turn since the pot is huge and go from there. To get a better hand to fold, you're going to have to fire on every street and they won't always fold and you'll be 3bet sometimes and blah blah blah it's spewing.

Example 4: I'd 3bet the QQ preflop obviously and sometimes 88. After c/r the flop, betting the turn is a must with all of these.

Example 5: I would 3bet all of those preflop always except QTo which I would do sometimes. The flop c/r is good for all hands everytime except QTo which I would only do sometimes.

All of these plays are combinations of value and fold equity (bluff) and some seem pretty standard. The fold equity comes because you're making the same play when you have it, so you can't make the pure bluffs frequently. A lot of LAG and sLAG players at mid limits try to do a lot of this kind of thing - pushing around tigher players and it's tough sometimes. The balance comes when they do it too often and get overaggressive. Yeah, so, uh, end of my post.

[x2ski]

Man, I feel really bad because you seem to have put some thought into your reply... Unfortunately, you misinterpreted the Questions, which is likely my fault for not being clear enough.

The Questions put you in the position of the "villain" from each example. So, in Example #1 Question 1, you were villain in UTG+2 and open-raised with TT, bet the flop and were raised by "Hero".

I changed roles in the Questions to help determine likely results of the bluff attempts. I hope this clears things up.

[Piiop]

Heh, thats what I get for just skipping to the hands. I'll hopefully make another worthwhile reply later.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]

Some problems with this post. 1- I would re- raise with KQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I won't 3-bet KQs against an EP raiser who has stats of 16/9/2. I might be incorrect, but I currently don't do that.

[ QUOTE ]
Who would you try to bluff against? Would your villian EVER fold an ace PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you mean would villain fold Ace-high post flop against a TAG showing aggression, I think a majority of the time, yes.

[ QUOTE ]
Bluffing and semi- bluffing is very situational in low stakes games. A bit more thinking on value betting and exploiting mistakes is far better for your EV.

"Never try to catch a rock."

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you consider a 16/9/2 a rock?

[x2ski]

Villain is a 14/8.5/4 after 350 hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.16 BB

The K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn sure didn't scare him. IMHO, I'm either up against a monster or complete BS, likely the BS.

Let's say villain puts me on overcards. If I recall correctly, there is approximately 30% chance that overcards will hit the flop.

Villain could technically call from the BB with ANY TWO CARDS (knowing it will be HU), check-raise the flop, and if I just call, fire again on the turn, knowing that the flop missed me. Against any further aggression, I figure this would be an easy fold for villain.

Am I looking at this completely wrong?

[x2ski]

No one else has any words of wisdom on this subject?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a 14/8.5/4 after 350 hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.16 BB

The K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn sure didn't scare him. IMHO, I'm either up against a monster or complete BS, likely the BS.

Let's say villain puts me on overcards. If I recall correctly, there is approximately 30% chance that overcards will hit the flop.

Villain could technically call from the BB with ANY TWO CARDS (knowing it will be HU), check-raise the flop, and if I just call, fire again on the turn, knowing that the flop missed me. Against any further aggression, I figure this would be an easy fold for villain.

Am I looking at this completely wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's a decent chance Villain has something like 66 or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. It'll be a monster occasionally. It'll be nothing at all on occasion too, I guess, but Villain is kind of tight preflop, so when he has nothing, it's probably worse overcards than yours, on this board.

Villain's aggression factor of 4 combined with the potential for draws kind of makes me want to call down. I also wonder how much chance we have of folding out a hand like 66 with a turn raise. I think maybe I don't make such plays often enough, and our TAG opponent could be the right person to represent the king against. (One way Villain could have gotten his very high aggression factor is by playing raise-or-fold poker.)

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a 14/8.5/4 after 350 hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.16 BB

The K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn sure didn't scare him. IMHO, I'm either up against a monster or complete BS, likely the BS.

Let's say villain puts me on overcards. If I recall correctly, there is approximately 30% chance that overcards will hit the flop.

Villain could technically call from the BB with ANY TWO CARDS (knowing it will be HU), check-raise the flop, and if I just call, fire again on the turn, knowing that the flop missed me. Against any further aggression, I figure this would be an easy fold for villain.

Am I looking at this completely wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's a decent chance Villain has something like 66 or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had those same cards, would you also bet into this turn against an EP raiser?

If I were villain, I would want to see the river and/or showdown as cheaply as possible, and would fear being raised on the turn by AK/KQ etc.

This is probably too weak-tight of me.

[ QUOTE ]
I also wonder how much chance we have of folding out a hand like 66 with a turn raise. I think maybe I don't make such plays often enough, and our TAG opponent could be the right person to represent the king against.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could a play such as this then be considered FPS? I did something very similar once... Ragged flop went check, bet, call... Blank turn went check, bet, raise... I 3-bet and folded to the cap.

I was accused of FPS on these forums but I swear this stuff is going on all around us. It's like this big secret that no one wants to talk about.