JJ ITM 2:1 odds it's a must call isn't it?

[theordinaryboy]

Prima round 5 $550 +55

payout $3000, $1200, $800, $500

4 left

Player 1 4500
Player 2 5200
Player 3 1300
Hero 4000

Blinds 50/100 blinds go up every 12mins (i.e. you get many more hands per round than a party game)

player 1 raises to 300
2 folds
hero raises to 1000 with JJ
player 1 goes all-in
Hero???

Reads on Player 1

reasonably tight, has had a big stack for most of the game but hasn't used it aggressively, instead he has just stuck to his tight game.

This is the first time i have re-raised player 1, he has also in the past shown that he can lay down a hand after a raise/re-raise.

But despite this read, this is surely a call isn't it?

Even if i give player 1 60% AA-QQ 40% AK its a call, espescially with the high prize for 1st in the payout.

cheers

[bennies]

Just going by my own "sense" of math, I think you are right to call this, because, as you say, it's a top prize heavy tourney. But hopefully his range is a little larger? AQ and TT also?

If he is really as tight as you reckon (QQ+, AK) then I'd fold, 3k to win 5k about 35% of the time seems like a bad deal, top heavy or not.

[Freudian]

I don't think you can get away from the hand here. Win this and you have a lock on 1st.