Getting near the bubble. Fold or play.

[Bob T.]

Refugee from the SS forum with a question.

From Friday nights PPM semi. Ten players will qualify, and we are currently at 14. I have around 70K in chips currently in about 9th place. When we get to 10 players an average stack will be around 100K.

Both blinds have about 20K, and are the two shortest stacks. Blinds are 2000/4000. I am second to act with KK, and bring it in for 8000, hoping to price one or both blinds in on the installment plan.

The next player pushes allin for 80K. It is folded back to me. Of the 80K that he had, he won about 120K of it from me, as I have had to fold every time we went SB vs BB for the last three hours, after he had trapped me earlier by slowplaying pocket aces. Im pretty sure that he thinks that I play very weakly.

So if I fold, I have a fairly good chance of still qualifying, but if I call, I will either be a lock to qualify, or I will be out.

At the time, I thought about it, and the fact that he had slowplayed aces before, and that he pushed this time made it think that he was playing some hand that he really wanted to win preflop.

At the same time I wonder if I was close enough to the bubble here so that I should have folded any hand that could cost me all my chips.

Thanks.
Bob T.

[TomHimself]

Why the miniraise? And what hand do you have?

[Bob T.]

I decided to call, and he had AJs. My hand stood up, and he got eliminated a couple of hands later, and I qualified, although this hand still bothers me.

[Bob T.]

KK

I miniraised, because I wanted to price the blinds into playing.

[TomHimself]

I think the fact that villian has been owning you for 3 hours you have to call [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]. I'm sure you knew your KK was good but was jsut a question of if you could squek into the money. I'll let someone else do the calculations for that [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[mauisupaman]

Howzit Bob,
Looks like you shoulda folded this one. He has you covered, you're in the end game, and you have a much better chance of getting into the top ten than the short stacks. If you happend to run into AA or get out flopped by an A or lower pocket pair then you'd get nothing. This looks like it should be an example straight from part 13 of Harrington's book.
A hui hou,
Adam

[Exitonly]

maybe if it were closer to the bubble.. but 4 people have to go, and from what he said it sounded like there was still going to be a lot of play left w/ his stack only being 9th overall...

He knows you can't call this withouot a monster, but i think KK is 'monster' enough, and theres no guarantee you can sit back and make it.

[mauisupaman]

I think you're looking to keep the pot relatively small here because the risk reward is just to great. If Bob gets out flopped that's it - it'll be over on just one hand. But if he wins he's almost guaranteed to coast into the top ten.

Are the KK going to be a big enough favorite often enough to make it worth it? Say Bob "knew" that the guy had AJ exactly. Then he'd be about 70:30 to win. I don't know the exact stack size of all 14 players, but I don't think its worth the call even if he know he likely has the best hand.

And 4 places from the bubble seems close enough to me especially with two short stacks. Adding to that fact that I expect Bob to be one of the better players left. I think he should've folded this big pot and continued to contest smaller ones with less risk. I'd rather barely make it into the top ten with little risk instead of definitely making it in with a big risk.

His goal here is not to win all the chips, it's just to survive long enough.
A hui hou,
Adam

[Bob T.]

I posted this, because in retrospect, I didn't like my play at all.

At the time, I thought that based on his earlier play, his most likely holding, was an underpair to my hand like 88-JJ where I would be a 4-1 favorite, and if that was the case, then that was about where I thought my chances of making the cut after folding were. If I folded, I still was probably going to be the one responsible for trying to take out the short stacks, and if either of them doubled through me, I would be even money with that player from that point on. Which makes me probably a little less than 4-1 to make it.

At the time, I thought that he made a mistake, but in retrospect, I think that I probably made a mistake by calling and taking my chances on the hand.

After the hand, I told the short stacks that if they made it, they owed me a beer on board for making that call, and the one that did make it readily agreed. So I got that potential beer as extra EV to add into the equation [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he should've folded this big pot and continued to contest smaller ones with less risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what happens when no one respects hero's raises and he can't win a pot preflop anymore? Is he willing to fold ITM?